The Pellucid Perspective - May 2021 - 17

Golf Playable Hours 2021 Monthly % Chng vs. Year Ago
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec YtD
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
10% ________________________________________________________________________________________________
9%
5% ________________________________________________________________________________________________
1%

0% ________________________________________________________________________________________________
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
-2%

-5% ________________________________________________________________________________________________
-10% ________________________________________________________________________________________________
-9%
-15% ________________________________________________________________________________________________
-17%
-19%
-20% ________________________________________________________________________________________________
Source: Pellucid

In the above, we track the monthly and quarterly timeseries view of weather impact (measured by Golf Playable Hours or GPH) so
our readers can see how the year is playing out at the national level. Again, if you want the 45 regional, the 61 markets or individual
facility-specific figures, you can get those by subscribing either to the Pellucid Publications Membership program, the Geographical
Weather Impact reports or Cognilogic (individual facility down to daily level) at the Pellucid website (see links below to the specific
web pages for each product).
The above graphic shows the healthy " up " weather result for April which will get many markets and operators in the north off to
a strong start in '21. That also nearly erased the GPH deficit coming out of Q1. Given the confluence of current rounds demand
trends and this favorable April weather, we're predicting a " launch " of rounds in April when those results are published. If you
want a look into our weather forecasting " crystal ball " for our '21 year-end " call " for weather at the national level you can get that
by subscribing to our Geographic Weather Impact tracking. For individual facilities, you can get our web-based, facility-specific
weather forecast service for the next 60 days by subscribing to Cognilogic Foresight.
Pellucid Publications Membership

Geographical Weather Impact

Cognilogic

Utilization Rate 2021 Monthly Point Chng vs. Prior Full Year
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
YD
30.0 ________________________________________________________________________________________________
27.0

25.4
25.0 ________________________________________________________________________________________________
21.2

20.0 ________________________________________________________________________________________________
15.0 ________________________________________________________________________________________________
9.9
10.0 ________________________________________________________________________________________________

5.0 ________________________________________________________________________________________________
- I________________________________________________________________________________________________
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
Source: Golf Datatech & Pellucid

The above graphic represents a timeseries by month of Utilization change which we're sure that by now you all know is the resultant
of Played Rounds (demand) divided by Available Rounds (capacity). We compare each month back to the static prior Year End
figure (59%) to determine if we improved or lost utilization in the current month.
Continuing the current trend, against basically flat weather, the March demand jump produced a 25 point boost to Utilization
for the month. What you can't see in the above is that this represents our 11th consecutive (started in May '20) month of Utilization gains. Jim's hedged bet from this column last month (calling for " a solid Utilization gain in March against flat weather " ) came
true so he'll go out on a limb for April, with a 9% weather tailwind, to say that rounds demand ought to be up 20%+ (we're also
playing against a depressed base in '20 under COVID restrictions for many parts of golfdom). Stay tuned to see if his call is correct
both in direction (almost guaranteed) and in magnitude (he could be well short here).
www.PellucidCorp.com

The Pellucid Perspective

17
The Pellucid Perspective - May 2021

Table of Contents for the Digital Edition of The Pellucid Perspective - May 2021
