The Pellucid Perspective - June 2021 - 5

end of 4 months played. So, at this point, the '21 " bulls " (Scott
& Stuart) whose bet was that '21 rounds would match '20's level
at year end, are looking like they're in " tall cotton " and I must say
that, as the bear predicting we would give back half of '20's gain,
I didn't think I'd be behind by 31M rounds coming out of April.
Looking at the sizeable " comps " however for the key months of
May-Aug, I still like my mathematical odds that we'll have a couple
months where we underperform '20 by 5-10M rounds which
is what it's going to take for my crystal ball to prevail. The other
thing (I believe) I have in my back pocket is that the Q4 numbers
in '20 were also abnormally stronger than average so this bet will
likely be undecided all the way down to October-November vs.
most seasons where the end of September when you can usually
call it fairly accurately.
In conclusion, and for those of you asking yourself " Is he ever
going to answer the headline question? " , I think the prosperity
party still has some legs into May and June. On current trajectory
based on state guidelines and vaccination rates, it seems to
me that we'll be full-on entertainment, spectator sports, school
activities, kids sports and unrestricted dining by 4th of July so
that month on out will be " open season " for people to consider
other activities in competition with their newfound enjoyment
of golf. That's where it's going to get interesting and I still maintain
that the novelty, nostalgia and siren call of those choices will
erode both our new apostles and their frequency as well as impinge
on the increased frequency we've enjoyed from our existing
core golfer base. I would love nothing more than to be wrong
on this but the other nagging factor that informs my " realism "
(others will call it pessimism) is the fact that during this period of
prosperity we haven't addressed, let alone fixed, the core barriers
to more people playing/playing more frequently such as relaxed
rules, skill development, match play etc.
As part of our participation in the NGCOA Golf Research
Center initiative, we'll be posting quarterly our crystal ball on the
rounds measure to the end of the year so NGCOA members can
follow along out there as our " call " and supporting facts/thinking
evolves. Along those lines, I also have to put in one more shameless
plug for our Golf Market Research Center (GMRC) initiative
which is now in the Charter Member subscription period
until 7/31. The more facilities that participate in this, the better
our crystal ball will get and the facilities will get better performance
tracking (i.e. weather-incorporated and discount rates in
timeseries view by month as well as 7 KPI scorecards). We'll also
be able to extend performance tracking for key markets and the
industry beyond current rounds-only to include Golf Revenue,
Utilization, RevpAR, Rate-per-Round (pricing strength) etc.
More details on the program can be found either by reading the
2 page program summary or viewing the 18 minute video of the
tools and measures narrated by yours truly. As the Chinese say,
" May you live in interesting times. "
n
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The Pellucid PersPecTive
5
3/8/21 11:40 AM
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The Pellucid Perspective - June 2021

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