The Pellucid Perspective - July 2021 - 6

INDUSTRY
TRACKING
June " Early Returns "
Better Than Expected
By Jim Koppenhaver
T
he initial June month results we're seeing through
the lens of the Golf Market Research Center
(GMRC) submitted by our Charter Members are
better than I had anticipated. As a refresher, my " call " for
the year was that we would see slightly favorable " comps " in
Jan-Feb (due to '20's 2nd half momentum), really favorable
comps for Mar-Apr (due to COVID restrictions in '20 as
our comp year), May was a toss-up (COVID opening in
'20 vs. continued momentum in '21) but June was going
to be the reality check where we started to see significantly
unfavorable comps due to the combination of a blowout
month in '20 and the return of " competitive " activities, travel
and sports in '21. To channel Maxwell Smart, " Missed
it by thaaat much. "
While our GMRC Charter Members' facilities are not
expansive or distributed enough to make them a representative
and projectable sample, in the absence of anything
better we're using the portfolio as a barometer of how the
industry is doing and we have the benefit, based on their
timely and historical monthly inputs, to compare both
against '20 and the more normal '19 years. What I had
expected in June was the pattern that I'm seeing play out
in my legacy Consumer Package Goods industry. Basically
what the grocery manufacturers and retailers are seeing for
Q2 '21 is the following macro story:
* Sales were up ~15% in '20 vs. '19
* Sales are down ~5% in '21 vs. '20
* Hence, on a 2-year basis, they're up ~11%
*
compared to historical years where 2% growth is
normal, they've experienced ~2x growth which is
huge!
Using that as a reference point, golf demand is leavThat
translates to annual growth of ~5-6% which,
ing groceries in the dust. The compilation of the GMRC
Charter Member portfolio registered only a 1% decline for
the month of June for '21 vs. '20 (wow!) and that represents
a 24% increase over '19 or 12% annual growth for the
month over the 2-year period. Given that June is the 3rd
highest rounds contribution month of the year nationally,
that's a strong showing. For those of you following the
Koppenhaver/Merchant/Lindsay bet on whether or not we
match '20's rounds at year end, my " call " for June was -3%
on a path to 485M rounds (8M below '20) nationally so my
odds are declining but I'm still in the match.
Back to the June numbers, part of the beauty and benefit
of being a GMRC Charter Member is that you not only
see Rounds (which you can sometimes get in comparative
format from your PoS system) but 6 other KPI measures,
2 of which incorporate Pellucid's proprietary weather impact/Capacity
Rounds variable. Looking at Utilization for
the portfolio for the month of June, we see that it registered
an amazing 71% which was up 6 points vs. June '20 and up
14 points vs. June '19 (try that exercise in your PoS system).
So, to answer the question of how much of the June relative
strength was due to weather, the answer is " None, weather
impact in the markets where our GMRC portfolio resides
was actually negative and we posted that result in spite of
unfavorable weather, both vs. '20 and '19. "
6 The Pellucid PersPecTive
July 2021
PHOTO BY MATT AYLWARD ON UNSPLASH
The Pellucid Perspective - July 2021

Table of Contents for the Digital Edition of The Pellucid Perspective - July 2021
