The Pellucid Perspective - September 2021 - 17

the national picture of 31%/47%/23%.
Using our new methodology for calculating Supply/Demand
equilibrium and how the picture has changed from '00'17
based on rounds demand change vs. supply change, you can
see in the table above that Supply expanded 10% over that period,
similar to the national average of 11% (a Compound Annual
Change Rate (CACR) of roughly 0.6%). On the facilityreported
rounds demand side of the equilibrium equation, that
supply expansion was exacerbated by a rounds demand decline
of 13% over the '00-'17 period (nearly 2x the national rate of
decline, wow!). The confluence of these two factors results in
the cumulative supply dilution resting at -23% or meaningfully
higher than the national benchmark of -17%. This suggests
that 56 facilities could disappear next week in Miami and the
market wouldn't likely miss a beat.
Despite that, the average EHE has a healthy throughput
of ~29K rds/yr which is slightly above the national average.
Factoring in weather and daylight, the more accurate measure
is the market's 39% Utilization Rate which is slightly below
the national average (42%). This means that, after neutralizing
the weather impact of a moderate-length season, the market's
average golf " factory " runs at slightly lower throughput than
the average US course (so much for the assumed benefits of a
12-month season).
In summary, the primary contributors to Miami's Top 15
standing are Future Population Growth, Play Rate (round
per capita), the local Golfer Base and Revenue per Available
Round (RevpAR, driven by slightly below average Utilization
but above average Rate-per-Played Round). The " downers " are
lagging velocity given the season length, weather and available
daylight, the imbalance of Private to Public golf and the overall
supply level relative to what historically was needed to meet
demand. While the high proportion of Private golf in the
market likely isn't conducive to fostering a dialogue among races
and ethnicities, the public-access courses should be a place
where people from different backgrounds and worldviews can
come together for a few hours, share some stories and (a few)
good shots and part company better informed and enriched
from the experience.
It's a small contribution public golf can
make in Miami and nationwide, but it's at least a first step on
the proverbial thousand mile journey for us both as a country
and as individuals.
If you'd like the full profile of the any US market including all
the underlying numbers, you can get that or a facility draw areabased
analysis quickly and affordably by ordering the GLMA
Market Factbook; click here for more information.
" Clear Solutions to
Golf's Business Issues "
Visit our website and register for more information and free sample reports at www.pellucidcorp.com.
Or, contact Jim Koppenhaver to discuss your unique needs at jimk@pellucidcorp.com or 847.808.7651
www.PellucidcorP.com
The Pellucid PersPecTive
17

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The Pellucid Perspective - September 2021

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