The Pellucid Perspective - November 2021 - 10

WEATHER
IMPACT
OCTOBER
Pac
NW Cst N
Pac
October Trounces
Soft '20 Comparison
O
ctober GPH ended as a big treat registering +8% vs.
Year-Ago (YA), wow!
That nudged the Year-to-Date
(YtD) GPH figure into positive territory (but neutral by
our classifications) at +0.1% vs. YA. Regional breadth remained
negative for the year at 1:2 with 11 favorable regions vs. 18 unfavorables
rounded out by 16 in the neutral zone (+/- 2%). You can
get that full picture monthly one of three ways:
* Subscribe to the Pellucid Publications Membership
* Subscribe to the Geographic Weather Impact Report
(Nat'l, 45 regions, 61 markets monthly)
* Subscribe to Cognilogic (facility level, web-delivered,
unlimited access, updated daily)
Played Rounds for September as published by Golf Datatech
registered the expected " giveback " for a 3rd month in a row
compared to last year's strong results registering -8% (still well
above Sep '19). According to Datatech both sectors, Public
and Private, suffered similar declines. To the critical question
of how much weather impacted our flat rounds result, recall
Looking back at my crystal
ball, I was " calling "
September at -10% vs. '20
which means it wasn't quite
as bad as I had predicted.
that the previously-reported September GPH was +1% so the
meaningful rounds decline yields a Utilization loss of 5 points.
Jim Koppenhaver comments on the results, " October was a
great month for weather but, out of curiosity, I wanted to see
how it compared to the 10-yr " norm. " Interestingly, it was only
+1% vs. the 10-yr norm so what we saw here was a big positive
off a " soft " comp month. That's one of the reasons we also track
the long-term norm, it helps us sort out what's a strong month
in the absolute vs. relative to last year which might have been
abnormally good or bad. Looking back at my crystal ball, I was
" calling " September at -10% vs. '20 which means it wasn't quite
as bad as I had predicted. Looking at the regional weather
impact results range for Sep YtD, Minnesota has the most favorability
at +15% while the unfavorability side is anchored by
10 The Pellucid PersPecTive
Key
>+2% vs. YA
+/- 2% vs. YA
>-2% vs. YA
No arrow = NA
So
CA Coast
No
CA Coast
C CA
Valley C
So
NV
So
Int Mtn
Inland N
Pac
NW Cst S
Pac
Inland S
C CA
Valley N
No
NV
No
Int Mtn
No
Rck Mt
R
Cen
CA Val So
Des
SW West
D
SW
Northern VA/MD where GPH is -11% YtD. In Utilization at
the market-level for Sep YtD, the biggest gainer is San Francisco
at +16 pts (35% rounds increase against a 5% GPH gain)
while the biggest loser is Minneapolis at -5 pts (2% decline in
rounds against a 10% GPH gain, so much for taking advantage
of favorable weather). If you want to know any of the other
43 regions or 59 markets, you can subscribe to our Pellucid
Publications Membership and they'll come to you monthly
(before we release these summaries to the public as well). Due
to the diligence of our Golf Market Research Center Charter
Members, we've already seen the preview of the October results
for Rounds and Golf Revenue and it suggests that we're
tenaciously hanging on to more of our '20 gain than I've been
forecasting (my pain is the industry's gain, ha, ha). "
November 2021

https://www.pellucidcorp.com/purchase-reports/Pellucid-Publications-Membership-c60126192 https://www.pellucidcorp.com/purchase-reports/Monthly-National-&-Regional-Key-Market-Tracking-p235240902 https://www.pellucidcorp.com/purchase-reports/Cognilogic-Facility-Level-Year-End-Report-Monthly-Updates-p235256610

The Pellucid Perspective - November 2021

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