The Pellucid Perspective - November 2021 - 13

Jan Feb Mar
10%
5%
0%
-5%
-10%
-15%
-20%
1%
Golf Playable Hours 2021 Monthly % Chng vs. Year Ago
Aug Sep
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Apr
9%
May
3%
1%
I
I
I
I
I
-2%
I
-1%
-5%
-9%
-17%
I
I
I
I
I
0%
I I I I I I
-2%
Jun Jul
Oct
8%
3%
-19%
Source: Pellucid
In the above, we track the monthly and quarterly timeseries view of weather impact (measured by Golf Playable Hours or GPH) so
our readers can see how the year is playing out at the national level. Again, if you want the 45 regional, the 61 markets or individual
facility-specific figures, you can get those by subscribing either to the Pellucid Publications Membership program, the Geographical
Weather Impact reports or Cognilogic (individual facility down to daily level).
The above graphic shows the stellar October results for weather, eclipsed only by the 9% gain back in March (we've already seen
the preview of October rounds from our Golf Market Research Center Charter Members but we won't spoil it for you; if you were
a subscriber you'd already know them as well). The October result dragged the YtD figure (begrudgingly) into fractionally positive
territory. If you want a look into our weather forecasting " crystal ball " for our '21 year-end " call " at the national level you can
get that by subscribing to our Geographic Weather Impact tracking. For individual facilities, you can get our web-based, facilityspecific
weather forecast service for the next 60 days by subscribing to Cognilogic Foresight.
Pellucid Publications Membership
Geographical Weather Impact
Cognilogic
Jan Feb Mar
45.0
40.0
35.0
30.0
25.0
20.0
15.0
10.0
5.0
-
(5.0)
(10.0)
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Utilization Rate 2021 Monthly Point Chng vs. Prior Full Year
Apr
39.3
May
Jun Jul
27.0
25.4
9.9
8.3
5.5
1.3
(2.0)
(1.6)
(5.0)
I I I I I I I I I I I I I
Source: Golf Datatech & Pellucid
The above graphic represents a timeseries by month of Utilization change which we're sure that by now you all know is the resultant
of Played Rounds (demand) divided by Available Rounds (capacity). We compare each month back to the static prior Year End
figure (59%) to determine if we improved or lost utilization in the current month.
Not unexpectedly, we're on a run, likely for the balance of the year, of Utilization declines as we run into the tough H2 rounds
demand comps and the weather cares not about those comps or COVID. Jim's last month prediction for September that we'd
likely see a 3-6 point decline got the direction and range right; chalk that up to equal parts luck and having a preview of the
demand figures. The October call is easy, there's no way we do +8% or better in rounds vs. '20 which is what would be required
to produce flat Utilization so the only crystal ball is how much the down will be. He's going to go with a 4-6 point decline (our
GMRC Charter Members have already seen the roll-up of the portfolio for October including their numbers; you could be inthe-know
too by inquiring here).
www.PellucidcorP.com
The Pellucid PersPecTive
13
Nov
Dec
YtD Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
YtD
The Pellucid Perspective - November 2021

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