The Pellucid Perspective - November 2021 - 8

Industry Performance
Tracking
has played out for rounds in '21 and comparatively to both '20
and '19. Here's the brief summary:
* Jan-Feb were fairly similar representing the ongoing
COVID recovery ('21) vs. the pre-COVID state ('20)
* Mar-May you can see we trounced '20 in rounds due to
the COVID shutdowns in many states, no travel golf
etc. While we welcomed the rounds and revenue, there
wasn't full satisfaction in knowing that we were just
lapping an incredibly low base number. Here's where
having the '19 figures is instructive; you can see in that
comparison that we beat it in Mar and May and played
to a draw in April. The callout numbers show the May
gain in '21 was astounding beating the COVID-boosted
'20 by nearly 10M rounds and the '19 " norm " by over
11M!
* The next set of callout numbers above are the off-thecharts
July (the apex month for golf nationally) where
'21 fell just short of the '20 COVID surge but with both
months beating the '19 baseline by ~10M+ rounds, wow!
* While I was anticipating a Q3 that would basically revert
to the '19 numbers, you can see in the above brown
line for '21 that we continued to post healthy gains vs.
'19 so the giveback magnitude I had forecast was...too
pessimistic (first time in my life, right?)
* September, which is where the " actuals " end in the above
(the Oct-Dec are my new, revised forecast, see below)
was still hanging on to pretty healthy gains vs. '19 which
I had thought previously would be down matching the
red line by now
July was kind of the beginning of the end for me as I recognized
two things in my forecast that weren't coming true:
1) the giveback didn't start as early in the year as I had anticipated;
partly due to the fact that the Delta variant arrived to
crash my anticipated non-golf party and 2) the giveback, once
it arrived, wasn't as much as I had forecast (i.e. we weren't giving
back the bulk of the gains in the 2nd half). On the bright
side, I've got good company in missing a forecast and sticking
to my story longer than I should have; me and Fed Chair Jerome
Powell are in the same boat it seems; great minds think
alike (ha, ha).
So, where do I think we're going to land on rounds, latest, best
guess? The table at the top of the next page outlines my current
projection (yielding to the Q3 results reality and having seen the
preview of the October figures from our GMRC subscribers):
OK, so after you pick yourself up off the floor that I could
even dare think about us crossing the half a billion mark this year,
it's basically assuming that we continue the trailing 6-months
change rate vs. '19 which has been the most stable indicator re " Clear
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8 The Pellucid PersPecTive
November 2021
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The Pellucid Perspective - November 2021

Table of Contents for the Digital Edition of The Pellucid Perspective - November 2021
