The Pellucid Perspective - December 2021 - 16

MARKET FOCUS
Seattle at #4 in current
ranking, like other
markets, got healthy(er)
in '20
Seattle/Tacoma/Bellevue, WA, Core
Business Statistical Area (CBSA)
I
n this monthly section we profile one of the Top 25 US
Golf Markets based on a Pellucid composite score of the
golfer base, the supply level and rounds demand. Within
that Top 25 universe, we then rank them based on relative
health using a Pellucid weighted scoring system of 7 variables
ranging from Population Growth to Avg. Facility Utilization.
With our 2020 update we're going to go through the markets
based on which ones haven't been featured in the longest time.
For regular followers of this column, you'll notice 2 changes
in the map above and noted in the Legend:
1) We're now
distinguishing within Public-Regulation Length the Munis
(green symbols) vs. For Profits (blue symbols) and 2) We've
added Closed Courses since 2010 (black symbols). Our recently-released
'21 version of the GLMA contains numerous
enhancements as well as, importantly, for the first time we're
now seeing the big rounds and golfer gains from the COVIdend
show up in the analyses that have those figures as inputs.
As I mentioned in my Oct '21 article, " fun " is returning to market
analysis due to all the positive numbers!
In this issue, we'll profile the 4th-ranked market, the Seattle,
WA Metro CBSA. While last year didn't produce the
prognosticated " summer of love " for the market's denizens, '21
certainly has been a " season of love " for the golf operators as
evidenced by rounds increases Year-to-Date (YtD) between
15-25% which is amazing both in the absolute as well as outpacing
the national average by 2-3x as well.
By rounds demand (one of our 3 selection criteria for initial
inclusion in the Top 25 list), Seattle punches well below
its composite ranking weight coming in 21st in rounds among
US markets with facility-reported annual demand of just under
3M rounds (that's the through-the-turnstiles tally which
counts both local and tourist play, these are now the '20 yearend
figures!). Looking at the golf consumer base, we see that
the market is home to a healthy local golfer base of ~225K
golfers (this is local, resident population only). That golfer base
is served by a relatively slim supply base of 88 18-hole equivalent
(EHE) facilities producing a ratio of nearly ~2.5K local
resident golfers per EHE, a level well above the national average
(195 index).
16 The Pellucid PersPecTive
Private
PubPremium
FPROF
PubPremium
MUNI
PubValue
FPROF
PubValue
MUNI
PubPrice
FPROF
PubPrice
MUNI
Learning
&
Practice
Closed
Seattle/Tacoma/
Golfer
Base
- Est. # of Golfers (Ks)
- # of 18 Hole Equivalent Facilities
- Golfers per 18-Hole Equiv.
Supply Mix
Tot. Holes
- Private
- Pub-Prem
- Pub-Val
- Pub-Price
- Learn & Prac
Bellevue WA CBSA Tot US
225.7 21,065
88 16,034
2,565 1,314
195
1,377
35% 29% 119
14% 20%
69
25% 23% 108
12% 18%
69
14% 10% 144
Supply/Demand Balance*
- '00-'20 Cume Supply Growth/Decline
- '00-'20 Cume Rds Demand Growth/
Decline+
- '00-'20 Cume Mkt Supply Dilution
(-)/Absorption (+) Level*+
Rounds Demand & Facility Velocity
Tot. Facility-reported Rounds
- Avg. Ann Rds Velocity (Ks, per EHE)
- %Utilization Rate (Fac. Vel/Cap. Rds)
* Period % Chng in Rds vs. Period % Chng in Supply
-14% -8%
0%
6%
14% -2%
2,934,953
33.4
Above average level vs. US (Index >105)
Average level vs. US (Index 95-104)
Below average level vs. US (Index <95)
Index
vs. US
30.9
46% 59%
108
78
December 2021

The Pellucid Perspective - December 2021

Table of Contents for the Digital Edition of The Pellucid Perspective - December 2021

TOC
Jim loses ‘21 rounds projection Match Play 2 & 1 By Jim Koppenhaver
Adult player development & Fintech; makes cents By Stuart Lindsay
6 Activities; slipping into holiday lull
November GPH flat; weather no factor nationally this year
October Utilization down due to rounds decline vs. ‘20, Year-to-Date figure still 65%+!
Seattle at #4 in current ranking, like other markets, got healthy(er) in ’20
The Pellucid Perspective - December 2021 - TOC
The Pellucid Perspective - December 2021 - Jim loses ‘21 rounds projection Match Play 2 & 1 By Jim Koppenhaver
The Pellucid Perspective - December 2021 - 3
The Pellucid Perspective - December 2021 - 4
The Pellucid Perspective - December 2021 - 5
The Pellucid Perspective - December 2021 - Adult player development & Fintech; makes cents By Stuart Lindsay
The Pellucid Perspective - December 2021 - 7
The Pellucid Perspective - December 2021 - 8
The Pellucid Perspective - December 2021 - 9
The Pellucid Perspective - December 2021 - 6 Activities; slipping into holiday lull
The Pellucid Perspective - December 2021 - 11
The Pellucid Perspective - December 2021 - November GPH flat; weather no factor nationally this year
The Pellucid Perspective - December 2021 - 13
The Pellucid Perspective - December 2021 - October Utilization down due to rounds decline vs. ‘20, Year-to-Date figure still 65%+!
The Pellucid Perspective - December 2021 - 15
The Pellucid Perspective - December 2021 - Seattle at #4 in current ranking, like other markets, got healthy(er) in ’20
The Pellucid Perspective - December 2021 - 17
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