The Pellucid Perspective - January 2022 - 16

MARKET FOCUS
The Big Apple at #6 in Latest Ranking, More
Errant Golf Shots=More Broken Windows
New York NY/Newark NJ Core Business Statistical Area (CBSA)
I
n this monthly section we profile
one of the Top 25 US Golf Markets
based on a Pellucid composite score
of the golfer base, the supply level and
rounds demand. Within that Top 25
universe, we then rank them based on
relative health using a Pellucid weighted
scoring system of 7 variables ranging
from Population Growth to Avg. Facility
Utilization. With our 2020 update
we're going to go through the markets
based on which ones haven't been featured
in the longest time. Our recentlyreleased
'21 version of the GLMA contains
numerous enhancements as well
as, importantly, for the first time we're
now seeing the big rounds and golfer
gains from the COVIdend show up in
the analyses that have those figures as inputs. As I mentioned
in my Oct '21 article, " fun " is returning to market analysis due
to all the positive numbers!
In this issue, we'll profile the 6th-ranked market, the New
York NY/Newark NJ Metro CBSA. We thought profiling the
golf economy would be an appropriate way to mark and celebrate
the occasion of a new incoming Mayor, Eric Adams. It'll
also provide a benchmark regarding whether his new direction
on crime and education in The Big Apple will have any benefits
or detriment to the currently booming state of golf.
By rounds demand (one of our 3 selection criteria for
initial inclusion in the Top 25 list), New York punches well
above its composite ranking weight coming in 1st in rounds
among US markets with facility-reported annual demand of
just over 16M rounds (that's the through-the-turnstiles tally
which counts both local and tourist play, these are now the
'20 yearend figures!). Looking at the golf consumer base, we
see that the market is home to a healthy local golfer base of
over 1 million golfers (1.2M to be precise, this is local, resident
population only). That golfer base is served by a real estate/
economic reality-constrained supply base of " only " 494 18-hole
equivalent (EHE) facilities producing a ratio of nearly ~2.5K
local resident golfers per EHE, a level well above the national
average (187 index, similar to Seattle you may recall from last
issue).
The supply mix vs. the national distribution across Pellucid's
five access/value/usage segments shows (surprise?) a strong
bias to the Private segment (183 index) vs. the national distribution.
The split between Private/Public is 53%/47%, again
16 The Pellucid PersPecTive
Bayonne Golf Club,
Bayonne, NJ
New York NY
Golfer Base
- Est. # of Golfers (Ks)
- # of 18 Hole Equivalent Facilities
- Golfers per 18-Hole Equiv.
Supply Mix
Tot. Holes
- Private
- Pub-Prem
- Pub-Val
- Pub-Price
- Learn & Prac
Newark NJ CBSA Tot US
1,213.9 21,065
494 16,034
2,457 1,314
Index
vs. US
187
7,860
53% 29% 183
17% 20%
13% 23%
10% 18%
7% 10%
86
57
54
69
Supply/Demand Balance*
- '00-'20 Cume Supply Growth/Decline
- '00-'20 Cume Rds Demand Growth/
Decline+
- '00-'20 Cume Mkt Supply Dilution
(-)/Absorption (+) Level*+
Rounds Demand & Facility Velocity
Tot. Facility-reported Rounds
- Avg. Ann Rds Velocity (Ks, per EHE)
- %Utilization Rate (Fac. Vel/Cap. Rds)
* Period % Chng in Rds vs. Period % Chng in Supply
0% -8%
19%
6%
18% -2%
16,116,290
32.64 30.9 106
56% 59%
59
Above average level vs. US (Index >105)
Average level vs. US (Index 95-104)
Below average level vs. US (Index <95)
extremely " tilted " Private vs. the national average of 28%/72%.
The balance between Value-added golf supply (Private & Public
Premium) vs. Value golf (Public Value, Price and Learning
& Practice) is 70%/30% which skews to Value-added
January 2022
PHOTO BY PAUL CUAD ON UNSPLASH
The Pellucid Perspective - January 2022

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