The Pellucid Perspective - March 2022 - 19

five access/value/usage segments shows a significant bias to the
Learning & Practice segment (expensive land?) vs. the national
distribution (188 index, yellow stars in above map). The split
between Private/Public is 28%/72%, dead on the national average
of 28%/72%. The balance between Value-added golf supply
(Private & Public Premium) vs. Value golf (Public Value,
Price and Learning & Practice) is 47%/53% which also tilts
to the Value segments vs. the national average of 54%/46%.
Within Public-Regulation golf, the distribution between Premium/Value/Price
is 36%/33%/31% which is slightly skewed
to Public Price at the expense of both Public Value & Premium
vs. the national picture of 39%/37%/24%. Remember also that
we establish the Premium/Value/Price segments by individual
market so that's factoring in differences in cost of living/cost of
golf as we cross markets (unlike NGF where Manhattan NY
has the same price segmentation as Manhattan KS, go figure).
Using our methodology for calculating Supply/Demand
equilibrium and how the picture has changed from '00-'20
based on rounds demand change vs. supply change, you can
see in the table above that Supply was basically flat over that
period, well below the national average of +8% (which represents
a Compound Annual Change Rate (CACR) of roughly
0.5%). On the facility-reported rounds demand side of the
equilibrium equation, that flat supply picture was accompanied
by a huge rounds increase over the '00-'20 period of 38% (what
golf recession?), way above the benchmark US level (+6%). The
confluence of these two factors results in the cumulative supply
absorption (current supply lags the '00 equilibrium benchmark)
of 39% which sails over the national benchmark of +14%. This
suggests that San Diego, unlike the majority of major US metros
which got behind in supply/demand until the COVID
surge rescued them, San Diego was healthy coming into the
pandemic and it got a lot healthier as a result of that surge.
Looking at the productivity of the average facility using our
proprietary velocity measure, they produce an amazing ~66K
rounds per year, twice the national average of ~31K. Applying
our industry-exclusive Utilization measure (played rounds/
capacity rounds), we see that, even after weather adjustment,
the market still bests the US " productivity " rate with a 76%
Utilization Rate (130 index).
In summary, San Diego continues its dominance of the Top
25 in health, slightly extending its lead during the COVID
era of golf. You will notice however on the map that there are
several closed facilities (black hexagons) so it's not immune to
supply contraction. From our observation however it would
seem that those " take-outs " are likely due to higher and better
use for real estate than a facility that's not profitable. The other
interesting anomaly is the supply balance toward Learning &
Practice and Public Price (our bunny slopes). That's the result
of our market-level segmentation (the courses aren't necessarily
inexpensive in the absolute but, relative to the market, they
are) and the fact that Stuart likes to remind me that he helped
write the curriculum in San Diego for the predecessor of The
First Tee program so they know a thing or two about player
development and have been at it for a considerable time (think
about how old Stuart is, ha, ha).
www.PellucidcorP.com
We'd have even better visibility to document San Diego's
superiority if we could convince some number of San Diego
owner/operators to participate in the GMRC during the '22
season. You can get more info on the GMRC and instructions
on how to subscribe for our current promotion bundle
(GMRC + Cognilogic historical weather impact + Foresight
60 day Capacity Rds forecast + Outside the Ropes + the State
of the Industry presentation for $500/yr, wow!) in one of two
ways:
* Read the 2-page Program Overview:
* View the 18-min recorded demo of the tool and
program plans/pricing etc. (fill in your name and email
and it will open the video link; you're not signing up
for anything)
If you'd like more detailed Golf Local Market profiling
there are 3 ways to get it:
* Single location Golf Local Market Analysis
* Top 25 US Golf Markets Ranking Scorecard
* Golf Local Market Analyzer software license (unlimited
analyses, web-delivered, 24/7)
" Clear Solutions to
Golf's Business Issues "
Visit our website and register for more
information and free sample reports at
www.pellucidcorp.com.
Or, contact Jim Koppenhaver to
discuss your unique needs at
jimk@pellucidcorp.com
or 847.612.6717
The Pellucid PersPecTive
19

https://www.pellucidcorp.com/gmrc-overview https://register.gotowebinar.com/recording/7458806921132082700 https://www.pellucidcorp.com/purchase-reports/GLMA-Data-workbook-p235238751 https://www.pellucidcorp.com/purchase-reports/Top-25-US-Golf-Markets-Scorecard-c60114161 https://www.pellucidcorp.com/purchase-reports/GLMA-annual-license-Basic-edition-p235240900 http://www.pellucidcorp.com http://www.PellucidcorP.com

The Pellucid Perspective - March 2022

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