The Pellucid Perspective - August 2022 - 14

WEATHER
IMPACT
JULY
Pac
NW Cst N
Pac
Inland N
Pac
July Heat Burns
Capacity Rounds
J
uly weather results delivered a change of unusual magnitude
as Golf Playable Hours (GPH) declined 4% vs. Year-Ago
(YA). We usually don't see that much variance in mid-season
unless there's considerable storms and rain but this year the
abnormal heat hit the radar. Given the YtD deficit, this " smaller
loss " actually slightly improved the Year-to-Date (YtD) deficit to
-8% (from June's -9% level). Regional breadth YtD continued
negative at 1:18 with only 2 favorable regions vs. 35 unfavorables
and 8 in the neutral zone (+/- 2%). You can get that full picture
monthly in multiple ways:
* Subscribe to the Pellucid Publications Membership
* Subscribe to the Geographic Weather Impact Report
(Nat'l, 45 regions, 61 markets monthly)
* Subscribe to Cognilogic (facility level, web-delivered,
unlimited access, updated daily)
* Subscribe to the Golf Market Research Center (facility
level, portal access, includes access to both Cognilogic
(historical Capacity Rds) and Foresight (60 day forecast
Capacity Rounds)
Played Rounds for June as published by Golf Datatech were
a pleasant surprise at +3% which broke the " rounds follow
weather " pattern in recent months. To the critical question
of how much weather impacted the significant rounds decline,
the previously-reported June GPH drop was -3% so Utilization
provides the " truth " of how we performed reflected in the
+3-point change returning to our earlier season pattern of Utilization
gains.
Jim Koppenhaver comments on the results, " July's weather
impact reflects the national headline story for much of the
month which was unusually high and prolonged heat across
many US markets (Texas in particular took an unusual hit for
July). While our weather rules don't make a distinction between
" warmer than usual " weather within our Playable Hours range,
it does have " thermocouples " for both absolute temperature
and heat index/feels like which were triggered in July. Looking
back at June Utilization to see how we fared vs. the modestly
down weather, quite a few markets posted gains for the month
resulting in the +3 points gain at the national level. Diving
deeper into the market-level leaders & laggards for Utilization
June YtD, Minneapolis, Miami and Dallas continue atop
14 The Pellucid PersPecTive
Key
>+2% vs. YA
+/- 2% vs. YA
>-2% vs. YA
No arrow = NA
NW Cst S
Pac
Inland S
C CA
Valley N
No
CA Coast
C CA
Valley C
So
NV
So
Int Mtn
No
NV
No
Int Mtn
No
Rck Mt
R
Cen
So
CA Coast
CA Val So
Des
SW West
D
SW
the leaderboard (but they all get there different ways between
rounds and GPH; some are winning ugly) while NYC anchors
the Laggards list followed by Washington DC and Columbus
OH (again, you'll see they all have different demand/weather
dynamics, check it out in the attached workbook).
Returning
to the July weather, we've compiled the preliminary results
from our Golf Market Research Center and that portfolio of
courses registered a gain in both rounds and revenue against
even worse weather (due to the geographic distribution of
our early adopters) so we're going to have to go with a call for
Utilization up 2-5 points for July despite the weather carnage.
Our GMRC subscribers already know their weather-adjusted
July performance as well as the 60-day forecast for Capacity
Rounds for their facility; you could too (hint, hint). "
August 2022

https://www.pellucidcorp.com/purchase-reports/Pellucid-Publications-Membership-c60126192 https://www.pellucidcorp.com/purchase-reports/Regl-Key-Mkts-Weather-Impact-Subscription-c130513021 https://www.pellucidcorp.com/purchase-reports/Weather-Services-c60126191 https://www.pellucidcorp.com/reports/golf-market-research-center

The Pellucid Perspective - August 2022

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