The Pellucid Perspective - October 2022 - 20

MARKET FOCUS
St. Louis squeaks into
Top 25 at #25, market
health is improving
St. Louis, MO
Statistical Area (CBSA)
I
n this monthly section we profile one of the Top 25 US Golf
Markets based on a Pellucid composite score of the golfer
base, the supply level and rounds demand. Within that Top
25 universe, we then rank them based on relative health using
a Pellucid weighted scoring system of 7 variables ranging from
Population Growth to Avg. Facility Utilization. In this issue,
we'll profile the 25th-ranked market, the St. Louis MO Metro
CBSA. For regular followers of this column, you'll notice 2
changes in the map above and noted in the Legend: 1) We're
now distinguishing within Public-Regulation Length Munis
(green symbols) vs. For Profits (blue symbols) as well as adding
in Closed Courses since 2000 (black symbols). This is a
new feature of our recently-released '20 version of the GLMA
which features several enhancements such as these. Based on
the facility map, it's not hard to figure out where the money is
in St. Louis (west of the metro area, not in IL east and across
the Mississippi River) as well as the fact that there have been a
number of closures in the market looking at the quantity and
dispersion of the black hexagons.
By rounds demand (one of our 3 selection criteria for initial
inclusion in the Top 25 list), St. Louis punches at about its
composite ranking weight coming in 24th among US markets
with facility-reported annual demand of just under 3M rounds
(that's the through-the-turnstiles tally which counts both local
and tourist play). Looking at the golf consumer base, we see that
St. Louis is home to a healthy local golfer base of ~200K golfers
(this is local, resident population only). That golfer base is served
by a moderate supply base of 135 18-hole equivalent (EHE) facilities
producing an average ratio of ~1.5K local resident golfers
per EHE, a level 11% higher the national average.
The supply mix vs. the national distribution across Pellucid's
five access/value/usage segments shows a relatively balanced
attack with slight biases to the Public-Value (112 index) and
Learning & Practice (118 index) segments vs. the national distribution.
The split between Private/Public is 31%/69% which,
is slightly tilted to Private vs. the national average of 28%/72%.
The balance between Value-added golf supply (Private & Public
Premium) vs. Value golf (Public Value, Price and Learning &
Practice) is 56%/44% skewing moderately to Value-added golf
vs. the national average of 47%/53%. Remember also that we
establish the Premium/Value/Price segments by individual market
so that's factoring in differences in cost of living/cost of golf
as we cross markets (unlike NGF where Manhattan NY has the
20 The Pellucid PersPecTive
Private
PubPremium
FPROF
PubPremium
MUNI
PubValue
FPROF
PubValue
MUNI
PubPrice
FPROF
PubPrice
MUNI
Learning
&
Practice
Closed
Golfer
Base
- Est. # of Golfers (Ks)
- # of 18 Hole Equivalent Facilities
- Golfers per 18-Hole Equiv.
Supply Mix
Tot. Holes
- Private
- Pub-Prem
- Pub-Val
- Pub-Price
- Learn & Prac
St. Louis, MO
CBSA Tot US
196.0 21,065
135 16,034
1,452 1,314
Index
vs. US
111
2,057
31% 29% 107
25% 25%
98
26% 23% 112
9% 15%
9%
61
8% 118
Supply/Demand Balance*
- '00-'20 Cume Supply Growth/Decline
- '00-'20 Cume Rds Demand Growth/
Decline+
- '00-'20 Cume Mkt Supply Dilution
(-)/Absorption (+) Level*+
Rounds Demand & Facility Velocity
Tot. Facility-reported Rounds
- Avg. Ann Rds Velocity (Ks, per EHE)
- %Utilization Rate (Fac. Vel/Cap. Rds)
* Period % Chng in Rds vs. Period % Chng in Supply
4% 11%
-11% -7%
-15% -17%
2,737,992
20.3 26.5
41% 42%
Above average level vs. US (Index >105)
Average level vs. US (Index 95-104)
Below average level vs. US (Index <95)
same price segmentation as Manhattan KS, go figure). Within
Public-Regulation golf, the distribution between Premium/
Value/Price is 41%/38%/15% which is heavily skewed to PublicPremium
(at the shared expense of Public-Value and L&P) vs.
the national picture of 31%/47%/23%.
Using our new methodology for calculating Supply/DeOctOber
2022
77
98
The Pellucid Perspective - October 2022

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