The Pellucid Perspective - October 2022 - 21
mand equilibrium and how the picture has changed from '00'19
based on rounds demand change vs. supply change, you can
see in the table above that Supply expanded only 4% over that
period, much lower than the national average of 11% (a Compound
Annual Change Rate (CACR) of roughly 0.6%). On the
facility-reported rounds demand side of the equilibrium equation,
that supply expansion is juxtaposed to a rounds demand
decline of 11% over the '00-'19 period (~1.5x the national rate
of decline). The confluence of these two factors results in the
cumulative supply dilution resting at -15% or similar to the national
benchmark of -17%. This suggests that ~20 facilities could
disappear next week in St. Louis and the market wouldn't likely
miss a beat.
Looking at the productivity of the average facility using our
proprietary velocity measure, they produce just over 20K rounds
per year which is well below the national average. Applying our
industry-exclusive Utilization measure (played rounds/capacity
rounds), we see that after weather adjustment the market fares
better at 41% Utilization Rate which mirrors the national average
(42%).
In summary, on the plus side of the ledger St. Louis has a
solid golfer base relative to their current supply and the distribution
of supply is reasonably balanced compared to many other
markets which are much more " top-heavy " in Public-Premium
and/or Private. On the minus side of our market analysis ledger,
there's room for " healthy " supply contraction which would improve
the fundamentals of velocity. Additionally, turning around
the rounds demand trend from the slight annual downward drift
to anything in the plus column (that would also mitigate the
need for supply contraction) is an area for improvement. Overall
however, it's not a bad scorecard for St. Louis in the absolute or
versus the nation. Against the Top 25 markets universe however
they lag in several of the performance measures which awards
them the anchor position in our latest ranking.
" Clear
Solutions
to Golf's
Business
Issues "
Visit our website and register for more
information and free sample reports at
www.pellucidcorp.com.
Or, contact Jim Koppenhaver to
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jimk@pellucidcorp.com
or 847.612.6717
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The Pellucid PersPecTive
21
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The Pellucid Perspective - October 2022
Table of Contents for the Digital Edition of The Pellucid Perspective - October 2022
TOC
Fewer markets are “underwater”; (good) analysis coming back in vogue
Fewer markets are “underwater”; (good) analysis coming back in vogue
19 Activities; Transactions continue domination at 15
September GPH flat at -2%, Year-to-Date continues improvement (-5%)
Aug Utilization flat as rounds gain, Year-to-Date remains up against weather headwind
St. Louis squeaks into Top 25 at #25, market health is improving
The Pellucid Perspective - October 2022 - TOC
The Pellucid Perspective - October 2022 - Fewer markets are “underwater”; (good) analysis coming back in vogue
The Pellucid Perspective - October 2022 - 3
The Pellucid Perspective - October 2022 - 4
The Pellucid Perspective - October 2022 - 5
The Pellucid Perspective - October 2022 - 6
The Pellucid Perspective - October 2022 - 7
The Pellucid Perspective - October 2022 - Fewer markets are “underwater”; (good) analysis coming back in vogue
The Pellucid Perspective - October 2022 - 9
The Pellucid Perspective - October 2022 - 10
The Pellucid Perspective - October 2022 - 11
The Pellucid Perspective - October 2022 - 19 Activities; Transactions continue domination at 15
The Pellucid Perspective - October 2022 - 13
The Pellucid Perspective - October 2022 - 14
The Pellucid Perspective - October 2022 - 15
The Pellucid Perspective - October 2022 - September GPH flat at -2%, Year-to-Date continues improvement (-5%)
The Pellucid Perspective - October 2022 - 17
The Pellucid Perspective - October 2022 - Aug Utilization flat as rounds gain, Year-to-Date remains up against weather headwind
The Pellucid Perspective - October 2022 - 19
The Pellucid Perspective - October 2022 - St. Louis squeaks into Top 25 at #25, market health is improving
The Pellucid Perspective - October 2022 - 21
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