The Pellucid Perspective - November 2022 - 16

MARKET FOCUS
Houston at #15
celebrates Astros win;
golf market not worldbeating
but trending up
Houston, TX
Statistical Area (CBSA)
I
n this monthly section we profile one of the Top 25 US Golf
Markets based on a Pellucid composite score of the golfer
base, the supply level and rounds demand. Within that Top
25 universe, we then rank them based on relative health using
a Pellucid weighted scoring system of 7 variables ranging from
Population Growth to Avg. Facility Utilization. With our 2019
update of the Top 25 we continue to flip the tables and start
from the bottom and work our way up (because we never get to
the bottom of the list before the next update in the top-down
method). For regular followers of this column, you'll notice 2
changes in the map above and noted in the Legend:
1) We're
now distinguishing within Public-Regulation Length the Munis
(green symbols) vs. For Profits (blue symbols) and 2) We've
added Closed Courses since 2000 (black symbols). Our recentlyreleased
'20 version of the GLMA contains numerous enhancements
in supply tracking as well as annual timeseries charts for
rounds ('00-'19) and golfers ('05-'19) for every US location.
In this issue, we'll profile the 15th-ranked market, the Houston,
TX Metro CBSA. It's not coincidental that the Astros
recently won the World Series; we're contributing in our own
small way in commemorating their win and former Chicago
Cubs Manager Rusty Baker's long-sought and well-earned success
(he was dreaming anyway if he thought his odds were good
of achieving that milestone here but he/they sure tried). We
have several Golf Market Research Center (GMRC) courses in
this market so we also have visibility into the market's performance
October Year-to-Date in '22 and they're having a good
year with rounds up 5% and revenue up 11% for our portfolio of
facilities in the market.
By rounds demand (one of our 3 selection criteria for initial
inclusion in the Top 25 list), Houston punches near its composite
ranking weight coming in 17th in rounds among US markets
with facility-reported annual demand of ~4M rounds (that's the
through-the-turnstiles tally which counts both local and tourist
play). Looking at the golf consumer base, we see that the market
is home to a healthy local golfer base of ~330K golfers (this is
local, resident population only). That golfer base is served by an
adequate supply base of 140 18-hole equivalent (EHE) facilities
producing an average ratio of nearly 2.4K local resident golfers
per EHE, a level well above the national average (181 index).
The supply mix vs. the national distribution across Pellucid's
five access/value/usage segments shows a heavy bias to the Pri16
The Pellucid PersPecTive
Private
PubPremium
FPROF
PubPremium
MUNI
PubValue
FPROF
PubValue
MUNI
PubPrice
FPROF
PubPrice
MUNI
Learning
&
Practice
Closed
Golfer
Base
- Est. # of Golfers (Ks)
- # of 18 Hole Equivalent Facilities
- Golfers per 18-Hole Equiv.
Supply Mix
Tot. Holes
- Private
- Pub-Prem
- Pub-Val
- Pub-Price
- Learn & Prac
Houston, TX
CBSA Tot US
332.0 21,065
140 16,034
2,372 1,314
Index
vs. US
181
2,260
47% 29% 161
27% 25% 107
16% 23%
8% 15%
3%
8%
Supply/Demand Balance*
- '00-'20 Cume Supply Growth/Decline
- '00-'20 Cume Rds Demand Growth/
Decline+
- '00-'20 Cume Mkt Supply Dilution
(-)/Absorption (+) Level*+
Rounds Demand & Facility Velocity
Tot. Facility-reported Rounds
- Avg. Ann Rds Velocity (Ks, per EHE)
- %Utilization Rate (Fac. Vel/Cap. Rds)
* Period % Chng in Rds vs. Period % Chng in Supply
21% 11%
-14% -7%
-35% -17%
3,710,357
26.5 26.5 100
37% 46%
98
Above average level vs. US (Index >105)
Average level vs. US (Index 95-104)
Below average level vs. US (Index <95)
vate segment vs. the national distribution (161 index, see all the
red stars in the map above). The split between Private/Public
is 47%/53%, significantly tilted to Private vs. the national average
of 28%/72%. The balance between Value-added golf supply
November 2022
68
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The Pellucid Perspective - November 2022

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