The Pellucid Perspective - December 2022 - 15

Jan Feb Mar
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
-5%
-10%
-15%
-20%
-25%
15%
Golf Playable Hours 2022 Monthly % Chng vs. Year Ago
Aug Sep
Apr
May
Jun Jul
Oct
Nov
Dec
5%
YtD Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
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I
-10%
-19%
-19%
-19%
Source: Pellucid
In the above, we track the monthly and quarterly timeseries view of weather impact (measured by Golf Playable Hours or GPH) so
our readers can see how the year is playing out at the national level. Again, if you want the 45 regional, the 61 markets or individual
facility-specific figures, you can get those by subscribing either to the Pellucid Publications Membership program, the Geographical
Weather Impact reports or Cognilogic (individual facility down to daily level).
The above shows an interesting shoulder-season " bookend " in '22 with November delivering double-digit declines similar to
what we saw back in Mar-Apr. We've already seen the preview of the November rounds from our Golf Market Research Center
(GMRC) subscribers and it looks like demand will produce a double-digit down which, while not optimal, would still produce
a small Utilization gain. If you were a GMRC subscriber you'd already know both your weather impact and Utilization for the
month and YtD. Through 11 months the GPH figure slipped slightly to -6% given the much smaller base of hours due to weather
and daylight nationally. If you want a look into our weather forecasting " crystal ball " for our '22 year-end " call " at the national level
(it's leveling off but assuredly will be a negative number) you can get that by subscribing to our Geographic Weather Impact tracking.
For individual facilities, you can get our web-based, facility-specific weather forecast service for the next 60 days by subscribing
to Cognilogic Foresight (or becoming a GMRC subscriber).
Pellucid Publications Membership
Geographical Weather Impact
Cognilogic
Jan Feb Mar
5.0
4.0
3.0
2.0
1.0
0.0
-1.0
-2.0
3.4
Utilization Rate 2022 Monthly Point Chng vs. Prior Full Year
Apr
May
4.0
Jun Jul
3.4
3.6
I
I
I
-7%
I
-3%
I
-4%
I
I
-2%
I
-2%
I
I
0%
-10% -9%
I I I I I I
-5%
Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
YtD
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1.4
0.7
0.3
I I I I I I I I I I I I I
-0.2
-0.4
-1.1
-1.2
Source: Golf Datatech & Pellucid
The above graphic represents a timeseries by month of Utilization change which we're sure that by now you all know is the resultant
of Played Rounds (demand) divided by Available Rounds (capacity). We compare each month back to the static prior Year End
figure (61%) to determine if we improved or lost utilization in the current month.
October's Utilization managed to break out of our 2-month flat trend posting a 1 pt gain. The fact that demand didn't completely
follow weather downward is a continued sign of the underlying industry health in '22. Jim's call for October was a 1-2 point
gain so he got back in the prognostication winner's column with the above result. For November he's going to stick with his 1-2
point Utilization gain call based on his GMRC preview compilation meaning that rounds won't fall more than 15% against the
-19% Capacity Rounds result shown in the previous table. Our GMRC subscribers have already seen their November results from
Golf Revenue down to Discount Rate via the trend and scorecard views for their facility and the summary portfolio of GMRC
participants; you too could be in-the-know by inquiring here.
www.PellucidcorP.com
The Pellucid PersPecTive
15
The Pellucid Perspective - December 2022

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