The Pellucid Perspective - January 2023 - 4

INDUSTRY '23 CRYSTAL
BALL: QUANTITATIVE
like " How bad was '22 relative to any other year? " A picture is
worth a thousand words... (see chart above.)
We tend to look at trend data through the lens of the 10-yr
average as you can see illustrated in the red line above. Note that
'22 is the first year that the anomalously-favorable '12 year is not
included. What the graph from '13-'22 tells us is:
* Of those 10 years, we get the expected distribution of
4 falling within the annual " bounce " from the average
(+/-2%), 3 breaking out to the upside (>+2%) and 3
breaking to the downside
* You can see however that all the " upside " happened
early in the current 10-yr period and we've had 5
successive years of below-average conditions to contend
with (good thing we had the COVIdend tailwind
pushing back against that)
* You can also see how incredibly poor '22's result was;
it's the first time since we started tracking GPH that
the national figure for the average geography registered
below 2,000 GPH (can you say gale-force headwind? I
knew you could)
Before we put that behind us for happier talk of '23, to put
that in perspective for those of you who remember the incredibly
favorable '12 year (the year that winter forgot for the northern
climes), that was +8% vs. the long-term norm and we just registered
our first ever 7%+ decrease against the long-term average.
Last year was the inverted image of '12.
That brings us to our crystal ball for '23 and my first blush at
the national numbers which brought to mind the phrase " irrational
exuberance. " Here's the direction and magnitude indicators
are coming out of our 12-month forecast model compiled
by the 45 Pellucid weather regions and weighted by rounds contribution:
*
We will see a " snapback " year which will take us at least
back to the 10-yr average
* Referencing the above chart, that would carry us past
the '21 mark, in effect recapturing at least what Mother
Nature took from us in '22
*
The current modeling is suggesting we could even have
some upside to the 10-yr average but, given that our
January '22 call for the year was for flat-to-slightly up,
color me skeptical that we'll get considerably more
bounce than the 10-yr mark
As we all know, golf at the national level is a mosaic woven
with the often very different individual markets; much like the
saying " There is no stock market, there is a market of stocks. "
Fortunately, 3 years ago we built the solution to this challenge in
partnership with AccuWeather called Foresight. Foresight takes
the forecast down to facility-level (actually they provide the
weather station " picks " and we assign each facility to the closest
one) and focuses on the next 60-days. Since we're all going to be
in Orlando shortly and guys like Stuart want to know whether to
take the sticks this year or not, here's what the Orlando Foresight
report is telling us about '23 vs. '22 as it relates to key weather
variables and converts them into Capacity Rounds (which are
Golf Playable Hours factored by our constant throughput-perround
methodology): (see chart on next page.)
If you were a subscriber to Foresight and operating in the
Orlando market, this would tell you:
4 The Pellucid PersPecTive
January 2023

The Pellucid Perspective - January 2023

Table of Contents for the Digital Edition of The Pellucid Perspective - January 2023

TOC
Are you ready for the ’23 weather rebound?
What attitudes and voices will influence golf?
13 Activities; Golf-to-graveyard is one of them
Dec GPH declines -30% (wow!), Year-to-Date finishes -7% (double-wow!)
Nov Utilization jumps despite rounds double-digit down, Year-to-Date still logging upper 60%!
Perennial PGA Show host market Orlando logs in at #5, poised like the state economics to be ascendent?
The Pellucid Perspective - January 2023 - TOC
The Pellucid Perspective - January 2023 - Are you ready for the ’23 weather rebound?
The Pellucid Perspective - January 2023 - 3
The Pellucid Perspective - January 2023 - 4
The Pellucid Perspective - January 2023 - 5
The Pellucid Perspective - January 2023 - 6
The Pellucid Perspective - January 2023 - 7
The Pellucid Perspective - January 2023 - What attitudes and voices will influence golf?
The Pellucid Perspective - January 2023 - 9
The Pellucid Perspective - January 2023 - 13 Activities; Golf-to-graveyard is one of them
The Pellucid Perspective - January 2023 - 11
The Pellucid Perspective - January 2023 - Dec GPH declines -30% (wow!), Year-to-Date finishes -7% (double-wow!)
The Pellucid Perspective - January 2023 - 13
The Pellucid Perspective - January 2023 - Nov Utilization jumps despite rounds double-digit down, Year-to-Date still logging upper 60%!
The Pellucid Perspective - January 2023 - 15
The Pellucid Perspective - January 2023 - Perennial PGA Show host market Orlando logs in at #5, poised like the state economics to be ascendent?
The Pellucid Perspective - January 2023 - 17
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