The Pellucid Perspective - February 2023 - 16

MARKET FOCUS
Phoenix in the sports spotlight; market moving in
right direction to capitalize on more tourists
Phoenix, AZ
Statistical Area (CBSA)
I
n this monthly section we profile one of the Top 25 US
Golf Markets based on a Pellucid composite score of the
golfer base, the supply level and rounds demand. Within
that Top 25 universe, we then rank them based on relative
health using a Pellucid weighted scoring system of 7 variables
ranging from Population Growth to Avg. Facility Utilization.
Proprietary to Pellucid's market-view mapping are:
1) We
distinguish, within Public-Regulation Length, Munis (green
symbols) vs. For Profits (blue symbols) as well as adding in
Closed Courses since 2010 (black symbols).
In this issue, we'll recognize the February sports epicenter
of Phoenix, #3 on the Top 25 ranking, which just hosted
the Super Bowl and the Waste Management Phoenix Open
(which is kind of a like a Super Bowl party where they concurrently
hold a golf tournament). In Stuart's research for his Q1
weather forecasting article that headlines this issue, he relayed
that the Phoenix market in particular is looking like +2-4%
GPH so it looks like a good start for this key golf market.
The fact that travel has largely rebounded (when the airlines
actually can fly their schedules) during the endemic phase of
COVID also augers well for this golf destination market.
Golfer Base
- Est. # of Golfers (Ks)
- # of 18 Hole Equivalent Facilities
- Golfers per 18-Hole Equiv.
Supply Mix
Tot. Holes
- Private
- Pub-Prem
- Pub-Val
- Pub-Price
- Learn & Prac
Rounds Demand & Facility Velocity
Tot. Facility-reported Rounds
- Avg. Ann Rds Velocity (Ks, per EHE)
- %Utilization Rate (Fac. Vel/Cap. Rds)
Phoenix, AZ Tot US
486 21,065
205 15,242
2,372 1,382
3,699
21% 29%
Index
vs. US
172
72
26% 20% 130
23% 22% 105
20% 20% 100
10%
9% 111
10,719,837
52.4 32.4
72% 54%
Above average level vs. US (Index >105)
Average level vs. US (Index 95-104)ww
Below average level vs. US (Index <95)
By rounds demand (one of our 3 selection criteria for initial
inclusion in the Top 25 list), Phoenix punches near its
composite ranking weight coming in 2nd in rounds (aided by
the significant tourist golf) among US markets with facilityreported
annual demand of nearly 11M rounds (that's the
through-the-turnstiles tally which counts both local
and tourist play). Looking at the golf consumer base,
we see that Phoenix is home to a healthy local golfer
base of ~486K golfers (this is local, resident population
only and recognizing that tourists are key to the
market's golf success). That golfer base is served by a
healthy supply base of 205 18-hole equivalent (EHE)
facilities producing an average ratio of ~2.4K local
resident golfers per EHE, well above the national average
(but the black hexagons in the map above show
that there's still room for re-balancing the supply
both by location and facility type).
The supply mix vs. the national distribution across
Private
PubPremium
FPROF
PubPremium
MUNI
PubValue
FPROF
PubValue
MUNI
PubPrice
FPROF
PubPrice
MUNI
Learning
&
Practice
Closed
Pellucid's
five access/value/usage segments shows a
bias to Public-Premium (130 Index) vs. the national
distribution. The split between Private/Public is
21%/79% which is slightly skewed to Public vs. the
national average of 28%/72%. The balance between
Value-added golf supply (Private & Public Premium)
vs. Value golf (Public Value, Price and Learning &
Practice) is 47%/53% which is dead on the national
average of 47%/53%. Remember also that we establish
the Premium/Value/Price segments by individual
market so that's factoring in differences in cost of
living/cost of golf as we cross markets (unlike NGF
where Manhattan NY has the same price segmen16
The Pellucid PersPecTive
February 2023
162
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The Pellucid Perspective - February 2023

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