The Pellucid Perspective - February 2023 - 7
2. How many golfers (potential customers) are there in
that draw area, is that number increasing or decreasing
over the past 5 years, how many facilities are you
competing with for that customer base?
3. What are the rounds trends for the past 5 years in that
draw area, is demand increasing or decreasing? Is the
facility's share-of-rounds increasing or decreasing?
4. What is the supply distribution within the market
(Pellucid's 5 facility types, Private, Learning & Practice,
Public Regulation Premium/Value/Price) and is your
segment over or under-represented relative to the
national distribution?
5. What is the average velocity (annual rounds per 18-hole
equivalent) in the draw area for your facility peer group?
6. Looking at the last 3 years, what is the % Utilization
(weather-factored productivity) of the subject facility?
What should the annual rounds number be for a
weather-average year (using the 10-yr Norm for
Capacity rounds and the current % Utilization) which
would be instrumental in building a realistic 3-5 year
revenue projection for a new owner (or an existing
operator pondering their future)
This brings up one of my other pet peeves about industry
conferences and education sessions; the multitude of speakers
presenting " best espoused theory " vs. " best applied practices " . To
demonstrate that Pellucid/Edgehill belong in the latter camp,
here are three tangible examples from the above for my go-to
sample golf course in our hometown of beautiful Buffalo Grove,
IL. See map above.
The above map represents a 25-minute drivetime from Arboretum
which takes us to Lake Michigan there on the east and
Crystal Lake and points west. We can see by the icon in the
center (green star next to the House icon) that Arboretum is
a municipal-owned (green) Public-Premium (star) golf course.
Just to show off, we've overlaid the median household income
by Block Group on the map, darker red is better and we can see
that Arboretum is well-situated relative to higher income in the
NW suburbs.
Next let's look at the size of the golfer base in that 25-minute
draw area and whether it's ascendent or descendent. See chart
below.
Here we can see a couple interesting things. The golfer base
trend is a V-shape, starting at ~61K back in '10, dipping to ~44K
in '19 and then rebounding sharply (COVID anyone?) back to
www.PellucidcorP.com
The Pellucid PersPecTive
7
http://www.PellucidcorP.com
The Pellucid Perspective - February 2023
Table of Contents for the Digital Edition of The Pellucid Perspective - February 2023
TOC
Forecasting is an art, but ‘23’s “art” for golf looks promising
Contrary to conventional wisdom, market analysis is “essential” not “optional”
9 Activities; larger companies are both investing and cashing out
Jan GPH amazes +34% (wow!); promising start or 1-month anomaly?
Dec Utilization makes modest gain (vs. -30% GPH), full year finishes positive & above 60%
Phoenix in the sports spotlight; market moving in right direction to capitalize on more tourists
The Pellucid Perspective - February 2023 - TOC
The Pellucid Perspective - February 2023 - Forecasting is an art, but ‘23’s “art” for golf looks promising
The Pellucid Perspective - February 2023 - 3
The Pellucid Perspective - February 2023 - 4
The Pellucid Perspective - February 2023 - 5
The Pellucid Perspective - February 2023 - 6
The Pellucid Perspective - February 2023 - 7
The Pellucid Perspective - February 2023 - Contrary to conventional wisdom, market analysis is “essential” not “optional”
The Pellucid Perspective - February 2023 - 9
The Pellucid Perspective - February 2023 - 9 Activities; larger companies are both investing and cashing out
The Pellucid Perspective - February 2023 - 11
The Pellucid Perspective - February 2023 - Jan GPH amazes +34% (wow!); promising start or 1-month anomaly?
The Pellucid Perspective - February 2023 - 13
The Pellucid Perspective - February 2023 - Dec Utilization makes modest gain (vs. -30% GPH), full year finishes positive & above 60%
The Pellucid Perspective - February 2023 - 15
The Pellucid Perspective - February 2023 - Phoenix in the sports spotlight; market moving in right direction to capitalize on more tourists
The Pellucid Perspective - February 2023 - 17
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