The Pellucid Perspective - May 2023 - 15

40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
-10%
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Jan Feb Mar
34%
14%
12%
I
I
-6%
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I I I I I
Source: Pellucid
In the above, we track the monthly and quarterly timeseries view of weather impact (measured by Golf Playable Hours or
GPH) so our readers can see how the year is playing out at the national level. Again, if you want the 45 regional, the 61 markets
or individual facility-specific figures, you can get those by subscribing either to the Pellucid Publications Membership program,
the Geographical Weather Impact reports or Cognilogic (individual facility down to daily level).
The above shows that April returned to the Jan-Feb trend of favorable weather registering +12% for the month. That slightly
improved the YtD summary figure to +10% which is a healthy tailwind for the first 4 months of the year (and which we forecast in
the '22 State of the Industry as a likely favorable factor in '23). We've seen the preview of the April rounds from our Golf Market
Research Center (GMRC) subscribers and it's suggesting we may also see a double-digit up in rounds demand yielding flat Utilization.
Jim's call last month for March was -5-10% on Rounds so it appears the industry beat that pretty handily. If you were a
GMRC subscriber you'd already know both your weather impact and Utilization for the month and YtD. If you want a look into
our weather forecasting " crystal ball " for our '23 year-ahead call at the national level (it's an encouraging number) you can get that
by subscribing to our Geographic Weather Impact tracking. For individual facilities, you can get our web-based, facility-specific
weather forecast service for the next 60 days by subscribing to Cognilogic Foresight (or becoming a GMRC subscriber).
Pellucid Publications Membership
Geographical Weather Impact
Cognilogic
Jan Feb Mar
6.0
3.0
0.0
-3.0
-6.0
-9.0
-12.0
4.4
Utilization Rate 2023 Monthly Point Chng vs. Prior Full Year
Apr
May
Jun Jul
10%
Golf Playable Hours 2023 Monthly % Chng vs. Year Ago
Aug Sep
Apr
May
Jun Jul
Oct
Nov
Dec
YtD Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
YtD
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-3.1
-7.2
I I I I I I I I I I I I I
-10.3
Source: Golf Datatech & Pellucid
The above graphic represents a timeseries by month of Utilization change which we're sure that by now you all know is the resultant
of Played Rounds (demand) divided by Available Rounds (capacity). We compare each month back to the static prior Year End
figure (61%) to determine if we improved or lost utilization in the current month.
March's Utilization gain broke the 2-month losing streak with a gain of 4 points as the slackened demand didn't match the
weather deficit for the month. This significantly improved the YtD figure to -3 pts (vs. -9 pts for Feb YtD). Jim's call for March
was moderately down for Utilization so he's now on a 3-month " miss " streak but, hey, the fact that the results are coming in higher
probably doesn't displease anyone. For April he's going to call Utilization flat (+/- 2 pts) which would call for a double-digit
increase in demand to match the 12% GPH gain; we'll see. Our GMRC subscribers have already seen their April results from
Golf Revenue down to Discount Rate via the trend and scorecard views for their facility and the summary portfolio of GMRC
participants; you too could be in-the-know by inquiring here.
www.PellucidcorP.com
The Pellucid PersPecTive
15
The Pellucid Perspective - May 2023

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