The Pellucid Perspective - August 2023 - 15

40%
35%
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
-5%
-10%
________________________________________________________________________________________________
________________________________________________________________________________________________
Jan Feb Mar
34%
________________________________________________________________________________________________
________________________________________________________________________________________________
________________________________________________________________________________________________
14%
________________________________________________________________________________________________
9%
12%
________________________________________________________________________________________________
________________________________________________________________________________________________
_____
6%
I
I
I
I
2%
________________________________________________________________________________________________
________________________________________________________________________________________________
Source: Pellucid
I _________________________________________________________________ I
-4%
I
-6%
In the above, we track the monthly and quarterly timeseries view of weather impact (measured by Golf Playable Hours or
GPH) so our readers can see how the year is playing out at the national level. Again, if you want the 45 regional, the 61 markets
or individual facility-specific figures, you can get those by subscribing either to the Pellucid Publications Membership program,
the Geographical Weather Impact reports or Cognilogic (individual facility down to daily level).
The above shows that July broke ranks from 3 consecutive months of positive weather (Apr-Jun) notching a 4% decline for the
month compared to '22 (given there's not much precipitation variance historically at the national level in July, that leaves excessive
heat the main culprit as we have a temp/heat index ceiling for a Golf Playable Hour). That negative result made a dent in the
previous YtD favorability dropping it from +6% to +4% through the initial 7 months of this year. We've seen the preview of the
July rounds from our Golf Market Research Center (GMRC) subscribers and it's suggesting we'll see a modest increase in rounds
for the month which will translate into another Utilization gain if our crystal ball is correct. If you were a GMRC subscriber you'd
already know both your weather impact and Utilization for the month and YtD. If you want a look into our weather forecasting
" crystal ball " for our '23 year-ahead call at the national level (it's an encouraging number) you can get that by subscribing to our
Geographic Weather Impact tracking. For individual facilities, you can get our web-based, facility-specific weather forecast service
for the next 60 days by subscribing to Cognilogic Foresight (or subscribing to GMRC for facility owner/operators).
Pellucid Publications Membership
Geographical Weather Impact
Cognilogic
Jan Feb Mar
6.0
4.0
2.0
0.0
-2.0
-4.0
-6.0
-8.0
-10.0
-12.0
4.4
Utilization Rate 2023 Monthly Point Chng vs. Prior Full Year
Apr
May
4.0
Jun Jul
I
I
I
I
4%
6%
I I I I I I __________________________
Golf Playable Hours 2023 Monthly % Chng vs. Year Ago
Aug Sep
Apr
May
Jun Jul
Oct
Nov
Dec
YtD Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
YtD
________________________________________________________________________________________________
3.6
________________________________________________________________________________________________
________________________________________________________________________________________________
________________________________________________________________________________________________1.3
I I I I I I I I I I I I I
-0.5
________________________________________________________________________________________________
________________________________________________________________________________________________
________________________________________________________________________________________________
-7.2
________________________________________________________________________________________________
________________________________________________________________________________________________
-10.3
________________________________________________________________________________________________
Source: Golf Datatech & Pellucid
The above graphic represents a timeseries by month of Utilization change which we're sure that by now you all know is the resultant
of Played Rounds (demand) divided by Available Rounds (capacity). We compare each month back to the static prior Year End
figure (61%) to determine if we improved or lost utilization in the current month.
June's Utilization gain was the intersection of favorable weather outpaced by higher rounds producing the +4 points result for
the month. This increased the YtD Utilization favorability by a full point from June's flat result for the year. Jim's call for June
Utilization was +3-5% so he scored a bulls-eye on that projection with the +4% result. For July he's going to call Utilization up
(+1-3 pts) which would call for a 4-6% increase in demand against the unfavorable weather; we'll see. Our GMRC subscribers
have already seen their July results from Golf Revenue down to Discount Rate via the trend and scorecard views for their facility
and the summary portfolio of GMRC participants; you too could be in-the-know by inquiring here.
www.PellucidcorP.com
The Pellucid PersPecTive
15
The Pellucid Perspective - August 2023

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