The Pellucid Perspective - May 2024 - 5

actually lost population between 2010 and 2020. As we will
explain below, this market is obviously not as strong as what's
happening in Texas; but there is another reason for you to refresh
your understanding of your local demographics. See table
above.
If you look at the Compound Annual Growth Rate stats on
the right, you will notice a significant bump for the 2020 - 2022
period. This " corrective " adjustment is not unusual when the projections
made in the 10 year period between the two official Census
dates don't exactly match. In short, this means this particular
New York market did not actually lose population, but that the
" experts " missed the mark for their estimates in the decade preceding
the 2020 Census.
These adjustments are also not uniform across all locations.
We have seen noticeable corrections in about 25% of the GLMA
reports we've done with the new Census data with both upward
and downward impact. What this really means is that every golf
course should be paying attention to their local demographics for
multiple reasons.
The data in the new NSGA report also means we have to
adjust to some of the changes we see in the composition of the
golfer base. Starting with Age, the number of golfers under 45
increased by 17.1% just in 2023. On the flip side, golfers over
45 went down by -10.4%. Some of this is that " baby boomers "
are starting to age out; but it appears that better fitness has extended
participation - the " over 75 " age cohort was the only over
45 group to show an increase in participation (+6.2%).
Further, 65.2% of the 2023 increase in participation came
from females who play at a lower frequency (14.4 rounds/year)
than males (19.3). When you combine this with the fact that the
under 45 group plays at lower frequencies than the older golfers
that are leaving; the average annual number of rounds per golfer
has dropped below 20 for the first time since the 1990s.
We have been doing Pellucid GLMA reports for over 20 years
and added Age, Income and Ethnicity Indices 15 years ago. For
Age, we always viewed an older Age Index as a positive factor -
this appears to be changing. As we have pointed out for the past
decade; the 25 - 40 year age bracket has always been the most
fertile group for attracting new golfers and re-engaging Juniors
that were exposed when younger but got sidetracked by high
school and club team sports. At this point, if your local demographics
skew younger, it gives you more opportunities to attract
and re-engage more golfers.
When we pioneered the introduction of the Ethnicity Index,
it served to address the composition of population changes - primarily
to account for the much higher than average expansion of
the US Hispanic group. It also addressed the fact that Hispanic
and African American Play Rates (Rounds per Capita) were far
lower. It also allowed us to measure local markets that were being
impacted by neighborhood transitions. While we have been
successful in attracting female participation; our progress in other
diversity efforts has been slower. It remains extremely important
to update your local demographics for any transitional changes
in your base.
What all these datapoints suggest is that we face several challenges:
*
We face inflationary pressures that may impact our
customer counts and values which need to be monitored.
* Our younger participation component plays at lower
frequencies so we need more of them to replace older,
more frequent golfers.
* Population changes are not uniformly spread out on
a national basis with certain regions growing at the
expense of others.
With the essentially full tee sheets of the last 4 years; it is easy
to believe that marketing is not as important at this juncture. The
challenges above suggest otherwise - we're going to need to attract
and keep at least two younger golfers for every older player
we're losing in order to sustain rounds demand for the foreseeable
future. That's a tall order, but one we have to make unless you
want your revenues to behave like a Grande Mocha or Quarter
Pounder with Cheese.
n
When we pioneered the introduction of the Ethnicity
Index, it served to address the composition of population
changes - primarily to account for the much higher than
average expansion of the US Hispanic group. It also
addressed the fact that Hispanic and African American
Play Rates (Rounds per Capita) were far lower.
www.PellucidcorP.com
The Pellucid PersPecTive
5
http://www.PellucidcorP.com

The Pellucid Perspective - May 2024

Table of Contents for the Digital Edition of The Pellucid Perspective - May 2024

TOC
US & golf economy; flashing early warning signs?
AI golf business application challenge: Classify 14K golf courses 210 unique ways
“Shallow” activity skews to Private and higher end properties
April’s a yawner with GPH +1%, Year-to-Date still up at +4%
Mar Utilization declines 4 pts (rounds up, weather up more), Year-to-Date now neutral at -1 pt
PGA Championship host city Louisville KY, could use more, affordable “on-ramps” for golf
The Pellucid Perspective - May 2024 - TOC
The Pellucid Perspective - May 2024 - US & golf economy; flashing early warning signs?
The Pellucid Perspective - May 2024 - 3
The Pellucid Perspective - May 2024 - 4
The Pellucid Perspective - May 2024 - 5
The Pellucid Perspective - May 2024 - AI golf business application challenge: Classify 14K golf courses 210 unique ways
The Pellucid Perspective - May 2024 - 7
The Pellucid Perspective - May 2024 - 8
The Pellucid Perspective - May 2024 - 9
The Pellucid Perspective - May 2024 - “Shallow” activity skews to Private and higher end properties
The Pellucid Perspective - May 2024 - 11
The Pellucid Perspective - May 2024 - April’s a yawner with GPH +1%, Year-to-Date still up at +4%
The Pellucid Perspective - May 2024 - 13
The Pellucid Perspective - May 2024 - Mar Utilization declines 4 pts (rounds up, weather up more), Year-to-Date now neutral at -1 pt
The Pellucid Perspective - May 2024 - 15
The Pellucid Perspective - May 2024 - PGA Championship host city Louisville KY, could use more, affordable “on-ramps” for golf
The Pellucid Perspective - May 2024 - 17
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