IEEE Electrification Magazine - September 2013 - 23

CAFÉ

could even say "drives," automakers
70
to improve their motor vehicles'
Small Passenger Cars
mileage capabilities every year. UltiRegular Passenger Cars
mately, this will encourage manufac60
Light-Duty Trucks and Vans
turers to introduce more EVs into
Heavy-Duty Trucks
their product lineup because meet50
ing the standard will become
increasingly difficult with standard
40
ICE vehicles. -Figure 3 shows the CAFÉ
standards put forward by the U.S.
government from 2011 through 2025,
30
as documented in 2017-2025 Model
Year Light-Duty Vehicle GHG Emis20
sions and CAFÉ Standards. Figure 4
shows a short-term forecast of the
10
EV market through individual company shares. On the basis of this
0
forecast, Toyota is predicted to lead
the market with a 38.5% share followed by Ford, Nissan, Honda, and
Year
General Motors. It is estimated that
Figure 3. CAFÉ standards for each model year in miles per gallon through 2025. (Data courtesy of
EV sales will begin to grow rapidly
the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration and the Environmental Protection Agency.)
after 2015 and reach a combined 7
million per year by 2020 and 100 mil1.4
lion by 2050.
1.2
The International Energy Agency
1.5
Toyota-38.5%
2.4
3.8
has put forward a positive and
2.5
Ford-12.3%
ambitious road map to achieve
2.5
Nissan-10.6%
widespread adoption and use of EVs
and PHEVs worldwide by 2050. The
Honda-9%
road map -targets a 30% reduction in
5.5
GM-8.9%
38.5
-global CO2 levels by 2050 relative to
Fisker-5.5%
2005. The reduction is to be implemented through efficiency improveTesla-2.5%
8.9
ments and electrified transportaHyundai-2.5%
tion, with an EV share of at least
Volkswagen-2.4%
50% of the global light-duty vehicle
sales. To achieve that target, policy
BMW-1.5%
9
support is critical to ensure that the
Diamler-1.4%
initial cost is as affordable as possible
Meyers Motors-1.2%
10.6
12.3
and that an adequate charging infrastructure exists. Furthermore, collaboOther-3.8%
ration between public and private secFigure 4. EV market shares by company, forecasted by Ceres/Citi Investment.
tor companies must be established
and strengthened through research
transportation's specific needs. Every EV has at least one
programs, standards, and infrastructure development.
electric machine, and some have multiple motors dependElectric Machines-
ing on their drivetrain architecture. The annual production
More than Just a Pretty Face
of e-motors for EVs is forecasted to reach millions this
Electric machines have proved their ability to provide equal
decade, based on forecasts by analysts who track hybrid
mechanical power at relatively high efficiencies when
and EV production plans. Navigant Research predicts the
compared with ICEs over the past few decades. This, along
global market for electric drive motors in light-duty vehiwith their ability to mitigate fuel consumption and greencles to grow from a little less than US$1 billion in annual
house gas emissions, is a substantial reason to replace ICEs
revenue in 2013 to more than US$2.8 billion in 2020.
with electric machines. This has created a demand for a
The traction motor is key to the synergy of the electric
new generation of electric machines that meet electrified
powertrain. Selecting a suitable existing motor is a
IEEE Elec trific ation Magazine / s ep t em be r 2 0 1 3

Table of Contents for the Digital Edition of IEEE Electrification Magazine - September 2013