IEEE Electrification - September 2019 - 65

e-buses in transit, which could potentially increase transit ridership relative to a more traditional fleet.
However, to make further progress in Canada, the
development of a comprehensive business case for transit
electrification is essential. The business case should
address three key building blocks: operational data banks,
monetary incentives, and standardization, as highlighted
in Figure 11. First, there is a dire need to establish an
inventory for electric transit operational data that is accessible to industry and academia. This will provide realworld data for transit stakeholders on real-world
operational capabilities of electric transit, and it will equip
academia with the essential data to advance research on
system optimization. The monetary incentives are crucial
to offset the current high premium of electric transit
choices. Finally, standardization of electric transit choices
and the associated charging infrastructure will ease the
procurement process, which is currently hindered by the
lack of common standards.

expected to help. For some, age anxiety will be hard to
overcome, but we expect to see a type of demographic
transition where some of the most dismissive attitudes
will gradually fade away to be replaced by viewpoints
that strongly appreciate the virtues of zero-emission
vehicles. These attitudes will also start to permeate organizations and influence the composition of commercial
and public fleets.
Some demographic segments that are most open to
electric mobility may not be in the best financial position
to acquire the technology, especially in the early years.
High prices still tend to obscure the more vibrant interest
among younger people in EVs. Despite evidence that certain segments down-weight the importance of cash incentives, there is little doubt that this prominent policy tool
will continue to be important in spurring adoption if governments can maintain the stamina to persist. The use of
this tool in the transit context would also help. Regardless
of the mobility context, these efforts are unlikely to affect
the ultimate outcome, but they may affect the timing of it.

Conclusions
Canada has lagged behind other countries, including the
United States, in the electrification of mobility despite
having a clean electricity generation profile capable of
significantly leveraging the benefits of EVs. On the consumer side, Canada's registered EV fleet has only recently
reached a cumulative total of 100,000 vehicles. With
regard to light-duty fleets in the public and corporate
sectors, relative progress is slightly better although absolute totals are lower. E-buses have yet to make a major
breakthrough in Canada in the public transit context.
It is true that adoption in corporate or government
fleets is typically based on more detailed and rational
analysis than in the consumer sector, but this process has
also revealed that human elements are essential. Transit
operators openly admit that there is reluctance to be the
first municipality to make a major commitment toward
e-buses. And, with such a long operating lifecycle for
buses, the reluctance is perhaps not surprising. Apart
from these human elements, there are also logistical and
operational barriers linked to both the transportation and
utility systems. Standardization of e-bus technology is
viewed as a very significant element in helping to overcome reluctance to adopt.
At the beginning of this research project, the movement toward increased electrification of mobility was
seen as inevitable. Near the end of our project, we have
not uncovered results that suggest anything to the contrary. However, the pace of electrification in Canada is
much more difficult to predict. Our work has revealed that
there is considerable heterogeneity in the very large numbers of consumers and organizations that have not adopted EVs to this point, and it has shed light on the nature of
this variability.
Over time, some segments will be much quicker to
adopt than others. Being young, educated, and urban is

For Further Reading
M. Mohamed, M. Ferguson, R. Garnett, and P. Kanaroglou,
"What hinders adoption of the electric bus in Canadian transit? Perspectives of transit providers," Transp. Res. D, Transport
Environ., vol. 64, pp. 134-149, Oct. 2018.
M. Ferguson, M. Mohamed, C. D. Higgins, E. Abotalebi, and
P. Kanaroglou, "How open are Canadian households to electric vehicles? A national latent class choice analysis with willingness-to-pay and metropolitan characterization," Transp.
Res. D, Transport Environ., vol. 58, pp. 208-224, Jan. 2018.
C. D. Higgins, M. Mohamed, and M. R. Ferguson, "Size matters: How vehicle body type affects consumer preferences for
electric vehicles," Transp. Res. A, Policy Pract., vol. 100, pp. 182-
201, June 2017.
M. Mohamed, H. Farag, N. El-Taweel, and M. Ferguson,
"Simulation of electric buses on a full transit network: Operational feasibility and grid impact analysis," Electr. Power Syst.
Res., vol. 142, pp. 163-175, Jan. 2017.
M. Mohamed, C. D. Higgins, M. Ferguson, and W. J. Réquia,
"The influence of vehicle body type in shaping behavioural
intention to acquire electric vehicles: A multi-group structural equation approach," Transp. Res. A, Policy Pract., vol. 116,
pp. 54-72, Oct. 2018.
T. Dimatulac, H. Maoh, S. Khan, and M. Ferguson, "Modeling the demand for electric mobility in the Canadian rental
vehicle market," Transp. Res. D, Transport Environ., vol. 65,
pp. 138-150, Dec. 2018.

Biographies
Mark Ferguson (fergumr@mcmaster.ca) is with the
McMaster Institute for Transportation and Logistics, Hamilton, Ontario, Canada.
Moataz Mohamed (mmohame@mcmaster.ca) is with
the Department of Civil Engineering, McMaster University, Hamilton, Ontario, Canada.
Hanna Maoh (Hanna.Maoh@uwindsor.ca) is with the
Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Windsor, Ontario, Canada.

IEEE Electrific ation Magazine / S EP T EM BE R 2 0 1 9

IEEE Electrification - September 2019

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