IEEE Electrification - September 2019 - 86

VIEWPOINT

Why does the current focus on a
DER NWA strategy for distribution
grid investment appear to be myopic? The capital assets of the distribution system tend to have
over-capacity due to the lumpiness
of investments-and because the
load on the system and specific feeders tends to peak in only a few hours.
The proponents of DER NWAs argue
that the investment in what appears
to be excess capacity may, or inevitably will, lead to stranded assets.
Although that notion is possible, the
macro-level forecast of the changes
in demand in the electric sector
argue for growth pushed by greater
electrification, even as demand and,
particularly, peak demand are declining, in part through the expansion of
DERs. By seeing only the decline in
demand, the fact that electrification
is a visible and measurable trend
today is overlooked.
The most obvious example is vehicle electrification. We most frequently
think of this in terms of personal EVs,
but the reality extends well beyond
the private car to the electrification of
fleets, urban transportation (buses),
and battery-driven locomotives that
can replace current diesel electrics.
The movement to electrification of
residential and commercial space
heating is slower than that to vehicle
electrification, but it too is being motivated by evidence of global warming
and the need to reduce greenhouse
gas emissions. Historically, the U.S.
electric sector has been dominated by
coal-fired generation. The advent of
far more efficient and less costly natural gas-generating sources has led to
the retirement of coal units and a
greater than proportional reduction in
CO2 emissions. In 2017, the transport
sector produced more greenhouse gas
emissions than did the electric sector.
As emissions from the electric sector
continue to decline, there will be
increased regulatory and economic
pressure on both transport and heating to move away from fossil fuels
and toward electrification. The effect

will be to increase demand, particularly in the distribution sector.
While DER generally reduces
demand, electrification increases it.
EVs, particularly personal automobiles, are perceived as batteries on
wheels and, therefore, a DER, with the
challenge being whether this contributes to a reduction or increase in
demand. Their value to the grid will
depend on how well the charge and
discharge are coordinated, both temporally and locationally, with the
operational needs of the grid. If well
coordinated at both the time of
charging and the time of potential
discharge for grid support, the EV is
not only a DER but also a valuable
addition to the technologies that can
contribute to NWAs-with the caveat
that the point of charge and discharge is located at a point of need
within the distribution grid.
The downside of EVs as a DER is
that the technology, much like the initial acceptance of rooftop solar, is
showing evidence of clustering, and, in
a given geographic area, the existence
of several EVs provides the incentive
for more to arrive. At present, there is
only a minimal level of temporal control on charging, making it likely that
all vehicles needing to be charged will
do so at roughly the same time. In
addition, even with government subsidies, EVs are expensive and therefore
not widely accessible to residents of
most middle- and lower-income residential neighborhoods, again reinforcing the clustering to higher income
areas. When the clustering phenomenon is added to the likelihood of simultaneous charging, the likely result will
be significant pressures on feeder and
distribution peak demands.

Both Physical and Economic
Coordination Required
With the potential for significant
increases in the quantity and technologies of DERs, it seems clear that a set
of complex and competitive pressures
is being applied to the operations and
planning of the electric distribution

I E E E E l e c t r i f i cati o n M agaz ine / SEPTEMBER 2019

sector. While the outcome is highly
uncertain, the continued need for a
robust and flexible distribution system
is not. The case with increased electrification is obvious, although there
may be a need for restructuring in
specific areas to account for uneven
demand growth. The case for DERs
should be equally obvious, in that
DERs require both physical and economic connectivity to the full breadth
of the grid to recognize their value.
The distribution grid is the enabler, both physically and economically, for DERs and the expansion of
electrification. The challenge is how
best to evaluate and then incorporate
the potential benefits of NWAs to
reduce or defer infrastructure costs
while not removing or reducing the
distribution grid's flexibility in terms
of serving the uncertain magnitude
of the connectivity needs for both
DER and future electrification.
The answer for the distribution
grid is most likely the same as for the
transmission grid: the establishment
of a market structure that values the
energy and other services provided
or consumed. The restructuring of
the wholesale/transmission sector of
the utility industry was possible due
to competition and the existence of a
market structure. In the process of
establishing that market, we learned
that "getting the prices right" in
terms of time and space was the critical driving force toward investment
decisions and increased operational
efficiencies. Not all players were, or
are, equally happy with the outcome,
as would be expected in any market.
However, moving toward a market at
the distribution level should provide
the same potential for consistency in
valuation and operation that was
found in restructuring the transmission sector.

Biography
Richard D. Tabors (rtabors@tcr-us
.com) is with Tabors Caramanis
Rudkevich.

IEEE Electrification - September 2019

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