IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - January/February 2015 - 41

january/february 2015

1) Detailed Specification of Uncertainties and Options
and Corresponding Boundary Conditions

2) Identification and Assessment of Main
Uncertainties and Options (High/Low, Strong/Weak, Etc.)

3) Narrative of Possible
Futures

4) Identification of
Relevant Strategies

5) Combination of Coherent Futures
and Strategies into Possible Scenarios

6) Eliminate Scenarios
Due to Inconsistencies and Similarities

7) Final e-Highway2050 Scenarios

figure 4. The scenario-building process.

100% 100
95
90
85
80
75
70
65
60
55
50
45
40
30% 35
30
25
20
15
10
5

S4
S5
S1
S2

% RES

1) The approach starts by defining a number of uncertainties that will influence the future but cannot be controlled
by the decision makers and technical and nontechnical
options that can be chosen by the decision makers. Boundary conditions are specified (with upper- and lower-limit
values) for the different uncertainties and options. As
examples, in the technology domain, the maturity of carbon capture and storage (CCS) is an uncertainty; on the
other hand, the development of distributed generation is
an option. In the economic domain, gross domestic product (GDP) growth is an uncertainty, and so are European
demographic characteristics.
2) To limit the possible combinations to a tractable number, the main uncertainties and options are selected,
and boundaries are specified in the form of numerical
values (minimum, maximum, and average).
3) The main uncertainties are combined into "possible
futures" that are narrated in a verbal way. In the project,
five such futures were examined, named Green Globe,
Green EU, EU-Market, Big Is Beautiful, and Small
Things Matter. They take into account possible energy
and climate policies and incorporate various assumptions about technological and economic development as
well as sociopolitical perceptions.
4) In parallel, the main options are combined into relevant strategies for implementation of the EHS concept
in various possible futures. In the project, six strategies were developed, called Market-Led, Large-Scale
RES, Local Solutions, 100% RES, Carbon-Free CCS
and Nuclear, and No Nuclear. The main differences
among them were related to the level of deployment of
centralized versus decentralized generation; the level
of development of RES, nuclear, and fossil-fuel electricity generation; and the level of import and export
with countries outside Europe.
5) A future combined with a strategy represents a possible
scenario. Multiple scenarios are then generated by trying several different strategies within the same future or
by testing one strategy in many possible futures.
6) The resulting number of scenarios (the number of
futures times the number of strategies) from step 5 is
too large when the amount of analyses to be carried out for each scenario is considered. Extra steps
are therefore performed to reduce the number of
possible scenarios. First, a more detailed check
for inconsistencies is performed between the different scenarios. Second, we assess how each scenario is assumed to affect the development of the
EHS in terms of generation, demand, and exchange
(G/D/E). Scenarios that have a similar impact on
G/D/E developments can be combined into a single
scenario. This reduction process aims at selecting
the most challenging scenarios from the point of
view of grid development and the implementation
of the EHS.

0

S3

5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60
% Distributed Generation
5%

60%

S1

Large-Scale RES

S4

100% RES Electricity

S2

Big and Markets

S5

Small and Local

S3

Large Fossil Fuel

figure 5. The e-Highway2050 scenarios along two
dimensions.
ieee power & energy magazine

41



Table of Contents for the Digital Edition of IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - January/February 2015

IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - January/February 2015 - Cover1
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - January/February 2015 - Cover2
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - January/February 2015 - 1
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - January/February 2015 - 2
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - January/February 2015 - 3
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - January/February 2015 - 4
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - January/February 2015 - 5
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - January/February 2015 - 6
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - January/February 2015 - 7
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - January/February 2015 - 8
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - January/February 2015 - 9
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - January/February 2015 - 10
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - January/February 2015 - 11
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - January/February 2015 - 12
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - January/February 2015 - 13
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - January/February 2015 - 14
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - January/February 2015 - 15
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - January/February 2015 - 16
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - January/February 2015 - 17
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - January/February 2015 - 18
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - January/February 2015 - 19
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - January/February 2015 - 20
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - January/February 2015 - 21
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - January/February 2015 - 22
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - January/February 2015 - 23
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - January/February 2015 - 24
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - January/February 2015 - 25
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - January/February 2015 - 26
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - January/February 2015 - 27
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - January/February 2015 - 28
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - January/February 2015 - 29
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - January/February 2015 - 30
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - January/February 2015 - 31
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - January/February 2015 - 32
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - January/February 2015 - 33
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - January/February 2015 - 34
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - January/February 2015 - 35
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - January/February 2015 - 36
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - January/February 2015 - 37
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - January/February 2015 - 38
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - January/February 2015 - 39
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - January/February 2015 - 40
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - January/February 2015 - 41
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - January/February 2015 - 42
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - January/February 2015 - 43
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - January/February 2015 - 44
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - January/February 2015 - 45
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - January/February 2015 - 46
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - January/February 2015 - 47
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - January/February 2015 - 48
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - January/February 2015 - 49
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - January/February 2015 - 50
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - January/February 2015 - 51
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - January/February 2015 - 52
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - January/February 2015 - 53
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - January/February 2015 - 54
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - January/February 2015 - 55
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - January/February 2015 - 56
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - January/February 2015 - 57
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - January/February 2015 - 58
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - January/February 2015 - 59
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - January/February 2015 - 60
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - January/February 2015 - 61
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - January/February 2015 - 62
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - January/February 2015 - 63
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - January/February 2015 - 64
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - January/February 2015 - 65
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - January/February 2015 - 66
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - January/February 2015 - 67
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - January/February 2015 - 68
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - January/February 2015 - 69
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - January/February 2015 - 70
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - January/February 2015 - 71
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - January/February 2015 - 72
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - January/February 2015 - 73
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - January/February 2015 - 74
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - January/February 2015 - 75
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - January/February 2015 - 76
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - January/February 2015 - 77
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - January/February 2015 - 78
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - January/February 2015 - 79
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - January/February 2015 - 80
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - January/February 2015 - 81
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - January/February 2015 - 82
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - January/February 2015 - 83
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - January/February 2015 - 84
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - January/February 2015 - 85
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - January/February 2015 - 86
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - January/February 2015 - 87
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - January/February 2015 - 88
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - January/February 2015 - 89
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - January/February 2015 - 90
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - January/February 2015 - 91
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - January/February 2015 - 92
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - January/February 2015 - 93
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - January/February 2015 - 94
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - January/February 2015 - 95
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - January/February 2015 - 96
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - January/February 2015 - 97
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - January/February 2015 - 98
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - January/February 2015 - 99
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - January/February 2015 - 100
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - January/February 2015 - 101
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - January/February 2015 - 102
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - January/February 2015 - 103
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - January/February 2015 - 104
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - January/February 2015 - 105
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - January/February 2015 - 106
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - January/February 2015 - 107
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - January/February 2015 - 108
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - January/February 2015 - 109
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - January/February 2015 - 110
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - January/February 2015 - 111
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - January/February 2015 - 112
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - January/February 2015 - Cover3
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - January/February 2015 - Cover4
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pes/powerenergy_091020
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pes/powerenergy_070820
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pes/powerenergy_050620
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pes/powerenergy_030420
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pes/powerenergy_010220
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pes/powerenergy_111219
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pes/powerenergy_091019
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pes/powerenergy_070819
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pes/powerenergy_050619
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pes/powerenergy_030419
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pes/powerenergy_010219
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pes/powerenergy_111218
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pes/powerenergy_091018
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pes/powerenergy_070818
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pes/powerenergy_050618
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pes/powerenergy_030418
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pes/powerenergy_010218
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pes/powerenergy_111217
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pes/powerenergy_091017
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pes/powerenergy_070817
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pes/powerenergy_050617
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pes/powerenergy_030417
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pes/powerenergy_010217
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pes/powerenergy_111216
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pes/powerenergy_091016
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pes/powerenergy_070816
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pes/powerenergy_050616
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pes/powerenergy_030416
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pes/powerenergy_010216
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/ieee/powerenergy_010216
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pes/powerenergy_111215
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pes/powerenergy_091015
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pes/powerenergy_070815
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pes/powerenergy_050615
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pes/powerenergy_030415
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pes/powerenergy_010215
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pes/powerenergy_111214
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pes/powerenergy_091014
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pes/powerenergy_070814
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pes/powerenergy_050614
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pes/powerenergy_030414
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pes/powerenergy_010214
https://www.nxtbookmedia.com