IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - July/August 2016 - 27
Underground
Transmission
Demand
Response
Tons of
CO2
Emissions
Energy
Efficiency
Aggregate
Social
Environmental
Grid Use
Optimization
Strategies, Often
Addressing Multiple
Objectives and Risks
Public
Involvement
Transmission
Expansion
Planning
(TEP)
Resiliency
Physical
Regulatory
Geo-Political
EENS
LOLE
Performance or Risk
Metric, Pertaining to Only
One Source of Uncertainty
RES
Integration
Policy
Making
Economic
Markets
Integration
Energy
Diversification
CVaR
Economic
Welfare
figure 8. A depiction of the multidimensionality and complexity of TEP, when related to strategies and performance measures from varied sources of uncertainty.
Many alternative approaches, none of which are reliable
on their own, are available to deal with Unknowable uncertainties in the form of strategic scenarios. Because strategic
scenarios lack mathematical structure, there is no theoretical criterion for rational decision making. Instead, generic
properties of robustness and flexibility often guide the construction of expansion plans. Robustness can be defined as
the ability of a plan to withstand multiple futures preserving
near-optimality of the solution among these futures. Flexibility is the ability of a plan to be adapted quickly and at low
costs to multiple future scenarios. Many criteria have been
developed to construct robust and flexible plans, most notably the minimization of maximum regrets or adjustment
cost. However, none of the available criteria, or combinations of them, have extensively been proved to be reliable
for applications in a wide variety of situations. Minimax
regret is affected by known issues such as high sensitivity
to extreme scenarios and forgoing significant benefits on
28
ieee power & energy magazine
several scenarios in exchange for a minor improvement in
the regret on one particular scenario. Other lesser-known or
discussed issues include insensitivity to relative opportunity
losses and the lack of coherence, in decision analytic terminology, because the valuation of alternatives depends on
considering all possible alternatives (more precisely, considering the truly optimal alternative for each scenario). On
the other hand, issues and advantages of flexibility have not
been extensively assessed since few applications are available today.
In conclusion, no criterion or approach is currently widely
accepted for long-term scenario TEP, but rather conflicting
evidence and arguments are presented in the literature. The
hope is for a solid approach to be developed by researchers. However, we must be open to the possibility that a reliable approach to find one "optimal" solution is simply never
reached, acknowledging the lack of mathematical structures
and solid theories to aid decision making under scenarios.
july/august 2016
Table of Contents for the Digital Edition of IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - July/August 2016
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - July/August 2016 - Cover1
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IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - July/August 2016 - Cover3
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - July/August 2016 - Cover4
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