IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - July/August 2018 - 49

By Russell Fowler, Orlando Elmhirst,
and Juliette Richards

and transport. Currently, significant movement has been made in decarbonizing power generation, and some movement has been made in transport, but there has been little advancement in
residential heating. the two degrees scenario relies significantly (but not completely) on electrification of the transport and heat sectors. in this article, we discuss what will need to happen for
the United Kingdom to meet its legally binding commitments and the corresponding implications
for the power sector.

What Are the Future Energy Scenarios?
national grid, as part of its role as great Britain's system operator, produces in-depth analyses
for the future demand and supply of gas and electricity to the country. FES outlines a range of
credible pathways (the scenarios) for the future of energy.
these scenarios, which have been published each
year since 2011, describe the possible demands for and
sources of gas and electricity and their implications
for consumers and the energy industry. FES aims to
communicate the reality of each scenario in a clear
and concise way. all the scenarios have considered
energy demand and supply on a whole system basis,
incor porating gas and electricity across the great
Britain transmission and distribution systems. FES
does not constrain the levels of demand and supply because of network capabilities or operability issues.
Since FES is used by various stakeholders, it is used in a multitude of ways. Stakeholders have
said they use it as
✔ a foundation to build their own analyses and scenarios
✔ information for investment decisions
✔ a market view
✔ a reference point
✔ an academic source.
FES is also used as a basis for a range of further national grid analyses; for instance, it is the
starting point for regulated long-term network and operability planning. as each of the subsequent processes has its own requirements, further detailed analysis is undertaken, building on
FES. it is also used for activities that have shorter-term (up to five years) consequences, such as
the setting charges for customer use of the great Britain transmission system, and as a basis for
the electricity capacity report, which is used to support the government's decision on the amount
of capacity to secure through the capacity market auctions.

A Case Study Based on
Future Energy Scenarios

How Are Scenarios Created?
the production of the scenarios is part of an annual development process that has three key stages:
stakeholder engagement, data and intelligence gathering, and analysis. at each stage, the energy
insight team applies its expertise and judgment to ensure that what is created is plausible and credible. Feedback from stakeholders, such as industry experts, is an essential part of the development
of FES. Following engagement with stakeholders, the scenario framework is created that includes
assumptions and levers.
in 2017, four future energy scenarios were developed: two degrees, Slow Progression,
Steady State, and Consumer Power. the process starts by using a 2 × 2 matrix with the axes
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