IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - July/August 2020 - 22

Coal: 39,022

Petroleum:
7,362

Renewable: 1,987
Hydro: 6,229
Solid Waste: 764
Nuclear: 19,918

Natural Gas:
75,104

figure 1. Cleared capacity for the 2021-2022 delivery
year (in megawatts).

Operations Aspect
Some of the operational aspects of resilience include conducting stressed-system studies to model operations under
extreme weather conditions, improving system restoration
processes and plans, using synchrophasor data and systems
to improve operational resilience, and mitigating geomagnetic disturbances.

Fuel Security Analysis
New combined-cycle gas units are being constructed at the
same capacity levels as nuclear and supercritical coal units.
In some areas, this buildout has the potential to introduce
common-mode failure risks, due either to competition with
the residential heating load or failures of delivery systems
that serve multiple units. As generation replacement continues to favor natural gas, we are considering resilience
measures to close gaps in the gas-electricity dependency.
These include improving infrastructure contingency analy-

Study Cases

Escalated

Announced

Retirements

Deterministic Analysis
Disruptions

Weather
Scenarios
Typical 50/50
Winter

Fuel Delivery
Infrastructure
Disruption
Sensitivities
Extreme
(95/5)
Winter

ses, which consider the components of both systems simultaneously, and ensuring that the electric system has fuel
security as the fuel mix continues to change. Fuel security
could include elements such as longer-term DR, renewables
coupled with storage, distributed energy resources (DERs),
multiple or backup fuel sources, and onsite fuel storage.
Recently, several industry groups, including NERC and
some independent system operators (ISOs), have conducted
analyses focused on vulnerabilities in the fuel supply, which
is also called fuel security. Planned retirements of generating plants, an evolving generation fleet, and emerging risks
from cyber- and physical attacks highlight the need to identify vulnerabilities in the fuel supply chain. An example of
such vulnerability is the potential risk of increased dependence on natural gas generation and the pipelines that support
those generators. Pinpointing related concerns will enable
the industry to establish criteria to value energy security and
develop solutions to address identified problems.
PJM conducted a fuel security analysis to test the grid's
ability to endure high-impact, long-term disruptions to generators' fuel supplies. The study looked five years into the future,
analyzing more than 300 scenarios with varied elements, such
as extended periods of cold weather, customer demand, fuel
availability, refueling frequency for secondary fuels, generator forced-outage rates, generator retirements and replacements, and pipeline disruptions (Figure 2). The study used
winter scenarios because that is when the natural gas supply
is strained by competition with commercial and home heating
needs. The results indicated that, even in an extreme scenario,
the system would still remain reliable and fuel secure during
an extended period of severe weather combined with high customer demand and a fuel supply disruption. We did see issues
in the extreme retirement cases under extraordinary winter

E

Dispatch
Simulation for
Study Case
Duration

Detailed
Transmission
Analysis for
Selected Peak
Hours

Outcomes
Evaluation of
Current Capabilities
of Resources to
Mitigate Fuel Delivery
Infrastructure Risk
Inform Development
of "Fuel Secure"
Definition

Probabilistic Analysis

F
Locational/Regional
Unserved Energy
Statistics

Locational/Regional
Fuel-Secure MW
Methodology to
Mitigate Risks, If
Needed

figure 2. A fuel security analysis approach overview.
22

ieee power & energy magazine

july/august 2020



IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - July/August 2020

Table of Contents for the Digital Edition of IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - July/August 2020

Contents
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - July/August 2020 - Cover1
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - July/August 2020 - Cover2
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - July/August 2020 - Contents
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