IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - September/October 2014 - 37

in addition to these uncertainties, rapid urbanization will
exacerbate the effects of climate change. indeed, some of the
world's biggest and fastest-growing cities are located in lowlying areas exposed to flooding and storm surges. Their growth
is coupled with increasing energy demand, thus increasing
pressures on capacity and reducing redundancies in power
generation to riskier levels. an extreme weather event (or the
greater frequency thereof) will affect more people, and the
resulting costs (through lost business and damage to homes,
infrastructure, and goods) will be higher.

Definitions
✔ adaptation: The process of adjustment to

actual or expected climate and its effects in
order to moderate harm or exploit beneficial
opportunities.
✔ Resilience: The ability of a system and its component parts to anticipate, absorb, accommodate,
or recover from the effects of a hazardous event
in a timely and efficient manner, including the
preservation, restoration, or improvement of its
essential basic structures and functions.

Forecasting Weather and Climate Risks
The evolution of climate change substantially increases the
complexity and risk involved in long-term investment decisions; higher-resolution meteorological modeling to support
business decision making is therefore required. for example,
Statkraft has used historical data going back to 1931, but at
the end of the 1990s, analysts recognized that a systematic
change in climatic conditions had made the earlier data less
relevant. The company now incorporates the changed seasonal
profile of rain and snow in norway, with lower spring floods
and more winter precipitation. The norwegian authorities recognized the value of this approach and recommended basing
projections on the period 1980-2010 instead of 1960-1990.
Weather forecasting is important for routine operations.
it helps optimize production in response to demand. it is
also essential to provide warning of an extreme event such
as a hurricane, making it possible to better manage demand

and supply and accelerate recovery times. utilities need
improved forecast quality and reliability, especially for air
temperature, given its impact on demand, and rainfall, which
influences hydropower production and the water resources
available for cooling.
Électricité Réseau distribution france (eRdf), the distribution networks subsidiary of Électricité de france (edf),
uses a weather-monitoring and modeling tool called geriko
to evaluate the weather risks for the network (storms, winds,
wet snow, ice, and so on) two or three days in advance. for
instance, geriko warned about Storm Joachim in december
2011, allowing eRdf to put its staff on standby status. The
storm left 700,000 customers without power, but the advance

1,200

1,000

Number

800

600

400

200

1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
Year
Geophysical Events
(Earthquake, Tsunami,
and Volcanic Eruption)

Meteorological Events
(Storm)

Hydrological Events
(Flood and
Mass Movement)

Climatological Events
(Extreme Temperature,
Drought, and Forest Fire)

figure 1. Worldwide natural catastrophes, 1980-2012.
september/october 2014

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