IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - September/October 2014 - 38

table 1. Potential climate impacts per asset class.
Generation

T&D

Thermal

Hydro

Wind/PV

Biomass

Lines

Stations

Air temperature

Water
temperature

Water
availability

Sea level

Floods

Heat waves

Droughts

Customers
*

Wind speed

*
*

Storms

*
*

Impacts indicated by *
Source: Adapted from Asian Development Bank (2012).

warning meant that 95% of them had their service restored
within 24 h.
The huge development of observation networks over the
last 20 years has provided vast amounts of information.
To develop more reliable forecasts, utilities need access to
climate data and hydrological information about soil moisture, groundwater, runoff, and evaporation. They also need
enhanced skills to interpret the information and understand
how the meteorological uncertainty affects their operations.
dnv gl has studied the long island, new York, power
system, which was severely affected by Superstorm Sandy in
2012, to evaluate various scenarios of future climate hazards
on long island. dnv gl is working with the u.S. national
center for atmospheric Research to provide projections of
the potential hazards associated with climate change, based
on state-of-the-art climate modeling. advanced risk analysis methods can provide robust, transparent, scenario-based
analysis of risks and adaptation options.
The results show that the impacts of a Sandy-like storm
system occurring in a warmer world would be different in several ways. Significantly, the storm would take a more northerly
track, with landfall occurring closer to or directly on long
island. Precipitation would also be greater, and wind speeds
after landfall would be higher. The resulting storm surge on
long island would be greater than with Sandy, exposing more
assets and infrastructure to potential damage. There would be
higher water levels at 12 substations that were flooded during
Sandy, and several additional substations would be flooded.
improved climate projections and weather predictions are
necessary to help utilities understand the climate impacts at
local levels and adapt infrastructure to meet the expected
changes in climate and extreme weather events. utilities
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need improved models that scale global information down
to the local level and tools to understand how meteorological
uncertainty affects their current and future operations.

Climate Risks
While the general effects of climate change are global, its specific
impacts and the effects of the greater frequency and intensity of
extreme weather events will be local and specific to each technology and asset class. These effects may also be unpredictable and
will certainly vary during the lifetime of assets (see Table 1).
The most significant threats come from rising sea levels,
floods, storms, and water shortages. Rising temperatures will
also reduce the efficiency of thermal generation, and heat waves
will significantly increase peak demand. in general, the industry must revise its assumptions about weather risk and become
more flexible and resilient to the changing environment.
appropriate adaptation measures include the physical
protection of assets and improving the designs of specific
assets and of the electricity system as a whole. as technologies have different vulnerabilities, diversity of sources of
power supply and adequate backup facilities are vital. The
first line of defense will consist of low-cost, "no regrets"
measures such as good vegetation management, waterproofing, servicing, and maintenance.

How Should We Respond?
Two different types of risk will require utilities to change the
way they design and manage power infrastructure (see Table 2).

Extreme Events
utilities are improving preparedness for extreme events in
many ways. for example:
september/october 2014

Table of Contents for the Digital Edition of IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - September/October 2014