IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - September/October 2014 - 44

figure 1. European Climate Foundation, Roadmap 2050: A Practical Guide to a Prosperous, Low Carbon Europe, April
2010, www.roadmap2050.eu. (Used with permission.)

The Roadmap 2050 Project:
Approach and Methodology
The value of the eCF's Roadmap 2050 project lies in the
combination of its innovative, inclusive approach and the high
quality of its technical and policy analyses.
Since the purpose of the project was to establish and mainstream a common long-term vision and reference point for
decarbonization in europe, it was crucial to engage a large
group of stakeholders in the european energy sector from the
very beginning of the process. as a philanthropic organization,
the eCF was well placed to act as a neutral convener for such
a process. More than 100 organizations-including utilities,
manufacturers, system operators, nongovernmental organizations, consumer associations, and academic experts-have
at some point been consulted throughout the process. Their
engagement has been a critical value-add for the project and
was vital to its credibility and appeal, in particular with policy
makers across europe.
The high quality of the analysis has been a defining factor for the success of the project. eCF commissioned leading consultants in the field from imperial College london,
KeMa (now dnV Gl), McKinsey & Company, oxford
economics, and the regulatory assistance project (rap) to
44

ieee power & energy magazine

ensure the project was based on the best available technical
and economic expertise and computer models.

Methodology
The eCF published Roadmap 2050: A Practical Guide to a
Prosperous, Low-Carbon Europe in april 2010. it provided a
technical and economic assessment of a series of decarbonization pathways for achieving the eu's decarbonization goals by
2050 that would be in line with the energy security, environmental, and economic objectives of the eu.
The modelers took a back-casting approach, based on a
series of analytical steps that use exogenous inputs on 1) a
reduction of GhG emissions in eu-27 by 80% by 2050 compared with 1990 levels and 2) the delivery of a level of electricity supply reliability that is similar to that enjoyed today.
The analysis assesses a baseline projection against three
decarbonization pathways across a number of criteria, including
the cost of electricity, the overall level of investment required,
energy security, and macroeconomic measures (e.g., Gdp, sector growth, employment, and inflation). The baseline, developed
by oxford ecoprojections-taken mainly from the World energy
outlook of the international energy agency (iea)-and extrapolates those trends in energy, power, and emissions intensities
september/october 2014


http://www.roadmap2050.eu

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