IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - September/October 2014 - 45

ECF
Responses

Real-World
Challenges

out toward 2050. This baseline proECF Roadmap 2050 Project
jection was then used to develop a
Three Reports in Four Years
detailed modeling framework for the
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
power sector (see Figure 3).
in a first step, McKinsey &
Confusion About
Lack of
EU Energy
the Technical
Understanding on
Policy and
Company developed several decarFeasibility and
How to Balance a
Governance
bonization scenarios for the euroAffordability of
Power Sector in
Going in
pean power sector that defined the
Power Sector
Transition; Role
Different
evolution of electricity demand
Decarbonization
of RES, Grids,
Directions
EU 2030
DR, Backup
Climate
and installed generation capacand
ity to 2050. These power sector
Energy
decarbonization scenarios were
Framework
based on net final power demand
projected after reductions from the
baseline due to additional energy
efficiency measures and increases
due to electrification in transport
and heating. in addition, three
main pathways for the evolution of figure 2. Roadmap 2050: real-world challenges and ECF responses.
the power mix were defined, so as
to cover a wide spectrum of prevailing views; these ranged and dispatch model that optimizes the requirements for transmisfrom a 40% share of renewables to an 80% share of renew- sion, backup plants, and balancing actions with an hourly resolution. To obtain the necessary input data, KeMa (now dnV Gl)
ables (see Figure 4).
This represented a conscious decision to take a generic converted the annual energy balances provided by McKinsey into
and technology-neutral approach covering the full range of a detailed set of hourly load and renewable energy source (reS)
options in order to avoid politicized discussions about pre- supply curves, based on historic data from each region.
The system optimization and dispatch model considers the
ferred technology mixes. Similarly, it was decided to refrain
from consideration of national policies but to optimize the full range of dynamics of the power system on an hourly basis.
future deployment of renewable energies across europe it is based on a full chronological simulation of hours in a given
based on resource availability and cost, in order to minimize year and takes into account the costs and dynamic constraints
of different generation technologies; transmission capacities, as
the cost for european customers.
The grid balancing and security requirements for these path- well as the flexibility available from hydropower; other types
ways were analyzed extensively based on a system optimization of energy storage; and the increasing contribution from flexible

Input

Power Demand
per Region in 2050
by Pathway

Study Modeling Framework
Roadmap 2050
Demand Curves per Region
Hourly Demand Patterns
for a Year

Hourly Demand and Load
Curves Based on Historic Data

Installed Capacity
per Technology per
Region in 2050 by
Pathway

McKinsey

Supply Curves per Region;
Hourly Production Patterns
for a Year for Intermittent
Sources

KEMA (Now: DNV GL)

Output: Grid Design
and Operation
Optimal Mix of
Grid and Backup
Capacity that
Matches Demand
at Current Quality
Levels (LOLE)
Optimal Use of the
System for a Full
Year (8,760 h),
Taking into Account
Requirements for
Reserve and
Frequency Control

KEMA/Imperial
College London

figure 3. The Roadmap 2050 study's modeling framework.
september/october 2014

ieee power & energy magazine

45



Table of Contents for the Digital Edition of IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - September/October 2014

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IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - September/October 2014 - Cover3
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