IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - September/October 2014 - 46

Pathways

Production Mix and Capacity Requirements per Pathway
Production-Incl. Fuel Shift
Capacity
Percent, 2050, 100% = 4,900 TWh
GW, 2050

Baseline1

80% RES
10% CCS
10% Nuclear

49

17

410

34

110

80
0

60% RES
20% CCS
20% Nuclear
40% RES
30% CCS
30% Nuclear

10

80

30

20

60

30

120

235

40

120

1,110

1,610

60
160

20

470

185

270 2,020

1,180

670

240 1,700

190 1,280
+60%

Fossil Fuels
Without CCS

Fossil
with CCS

Additional
Backup
Capacity2

Nuclear

RES

1) Supply of 4,800 TWh, technology split by PRIMES, forecast updated with IEA WEO 2009 and Oxford economics.
2) Additional backup capacity to meet peak demand. Assumed to be OCGT in the costing
but could be any equivalent. 20% DR case shown.

figure 4. The production mix and capacity requirements for each pathway.

demand. Besides simulating the hourly operation of the entire
european power system, the system optimization and dispatch
model builds an optimal mix of grid and backup capacity. This
optimization is based on the objective of minimizing costs while
maintaining the same level of reliability (measured in terms of
loss of load expectation, or lole) currently enjoyed in western european countries. To this end, the model also takes into
account the need for different types of response and reserves in a
system dominated by variable resources and the dynamic variations of that system at different locations in the grid.

Key Analytical Findings
Roadmap 2050: A Practical Guide
to a Prosperous, Low-Carbon Europe
The Roadmap 2050 report published in april 2010 demonstrates that by 2050, europe could indeed achieve an
economy-wide reduction of GhG emissions of at least 80%
compared with 1990 levels. This level of reduction is only
possible, however, with a zero-carbon power supply. Such
a supply can be realized by deploying technologies that are
already commercially available.
a key outcome from the modeling is that the system-wide
levelized cost of electricity (lCoe) is roughly the same in the
three decarbonization pathways and in the same range as that
of the baseline nondecarbonization pathway. in the decarbonization pathways, the lCoe is around €75-90 per MWh
46

ieee power & energy magazine

(weighted average over the period 2010-2050). applying a
price to generation output of between €20 and €30 per ton of
Co2 equivalent would bring the baseline lCoe and the lCoe
for these pathways roughly into equivalency with each other.
The difference between the baseline and the decarbonized pathways is found to be slightly greater prior to 2030
(see Figure 5), but by 2050 the lCoe for the decarbonized
pathways is within the range of lCoe for the baseline and
trending lower. The costs of electricity in the pathways are
within the same range as the cost of electricity in the baseline due to an assumed increase in the costs of the baseline,
an expected decrease in the costs of the decarbonized pathways, a higher level of integration of markets across europe,
and the responsiveness of demand to fluctuating supply.
While the analysis confirmed the technical and economic
feasibility of the decarbonization objectives, it also highlighted
the technical, technological, and financial challenges. in the
decarbonized pathways, annual capital spent in the power sector goes up from about €30 billion in 2010 to about €65 billion a year in 2025. When delayed by ten years, the required
annual capital spend goes up to more than €90 billion per year
in 2035. This would require a steep scaling up of supply chains,
potentially leading to short-term shortages of building capacity,
materials, and resources. The message is simple: do not delay.
The implementation of new policies and regulations, the
orderly construction of new plants, and a smooth buildup of
the new technology supply chains will require the full period
september/october 2014



Table of Contents for the Digital Edition of IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - September/October 2014

IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - September/October 2014 - Cover1
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IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - September/October 2014 - Cover3
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