IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - September/October 2014 - 47

self-sufficient. in 2030 more import and export is allowed,
but self-sufficiency is preserved despite the increase in reS
capacity for almost all countries.
The report is built around a central scenario projecting the
full implementation of the existing plans for the power sector
to 2020 and an extrapolation of that trend through 2030. That
leads to a production mix in 2030 with 50% reS (28% variable, 22% nonvariable); 34% fossil fuels (28% gas, 6% coal);
and 16% nuclear across europe. The report models several
sensitivity scenarios that alter key parameters of the power
system and compares these against the central scenario.
Power Perspectives 2030 finds that existing plans for
renewables and transmission grids up to 2020, if fully implemented, constitute an adequate first step to decarbonization
but that the transition needs to accelerate toward 2030 in
order to remain on track to meet the 2050 decarbonization
goal for the power sector. This acceleration implies a near
doubling of investments in low-carbon generation and a near
doubling of electricity grid capacity in the decade after 2020
(see Figure 6).
More than Roadmap 2050, Power Perspectives 2030
shed light on the transition challenge, responding to the

of about 40 years. But arguably the toughest challenge of all
will be to obtain broad, outspoken acceptance and engagement
in the transition across countries, sectors, and political parties.

Power Perspectives 2030: On the Road to a
Decarbonized Power Sector
Power Perspectives 2030, published in november 2011,
builds on the Roadmap 2050 report. it looks at the next steps
required in the development of the european power sector
through 2030 in order to remain on track to full decarbonization by 2050.
From a methodological point of view, the analysis sets
the demand and production mix as an input to determine the
hourly demand and production curves and then defines the
transmission and backup capacity required to meet demand
at optimal cost and at current levels of system reliability.
The modeling applies the following conditions: achieving
the european Commission's 2030 Co2 emission reduction
range; maintaining power supply reliability at current levels;
and, where possible, avoiding the early retirement of existing
assets. import and export of power for each country is limited in 2020, as each country is expected to be more or less

The Higher RES Pathways Have Higher Cost of Electricity in the Early Years
Ranges of the Levelized Cost of Electricity of New Builds,1 € per MWh (Real Terms)
Baseline and Average of Decarbonized Pathways
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
2010

2020

2030
(a)

2040

Baseline and 40% RES Pathway

2050

120
100
80
60
40
20
0
2010

Baseline and 60% RES Pathway
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
2010

2020

2030
(c)

2040
Baseline

2020

2030
(b)

2040

2050

Baseline and 80% RES Pathway

2050

120
100
80
60
40
20
0
2010

2020

2030
(d)

2040

2050

Decarbonized Pathways

1) Based on a WACC of 7% (real after tax) computed by technology and weighted across technologies based
on their production, including grid. LCoE ranges are based on: carbon price from €0 to 35 per tCO2e;
fossil fuel prices: IEA projections ±25%; Learning rates: default values ±25%.

figure 5. The cost of electricity, 2010-2050, for the baseline and the decarbonized pathways: (a) the baseline and average of all decarbonized pathways, (b) the baseline and 40% RES pathway, (c) the baseline and 60% RES pathway, and (d)
the baseline and 80% RES pathway.
september/october 2014

ieee power & energy magazine

47



Table of Contents for the Digital Edition of IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - September/October 2014

IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - September/October 2014 - Cover1
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - September/October 2014 - Cover2
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - September/October 2014 - 1
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - September/October 2014 - 2
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - September/October 2014 - 3
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - September/October 2014 - 4
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - September/October 2014 - 5
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - September/October 2014 - 6
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - September/October 2014 - 7
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - September/October 2014 - 8
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - September/October 2014 - 9
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - September/October 2014 - 10
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - September/October 2014 - 11
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - September/October 2014 - 12
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - September/October 2014 - 13
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - September/October 2014 - 14
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - September/October 2014 - 15
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - September/October 2014 - 16
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - September/October 2014 - 17
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - September/October 2014 - 18
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - September/October 2014 - 19
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - September/October 2014 - 20
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - September/October 2014 - 21
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - September/October 2014 - 22
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - September/October 2014 - 23
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - September/October 2014 - 24
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - September/October 2014 - 25
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - September/October 2014 - 26
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - September/October 2014 - 27
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - September/October 2014 - 28
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - September/October 2014 - 29
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - September/October 2014 - 30
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - September/October 2014 - 31
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - September/October 2014 - 32
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - September/October 2014 - 33
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - September/October 2014 - 34
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - September/October 2014 - 35
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - September/October 2014 - 36
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - September/October 2014 - 37
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - September/October 2014 - 38
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - September/October 2014 - 39
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - September/October 2014 - 40
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - September/October 2014 - 41
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - September/October 2014 - 42
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - September/October 2014 - 43
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - September/October 2014 - 44
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - September/October 2014 - 45
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - September/October 2014 - 46
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - September/October 2014 - 47
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - September/October 2014 - 48
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - September/October 2014 - 49
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - September/October 2014 - 50
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - September/October 2014 - 51
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - September/October 2014 - 52
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - September/October 2014 - 53
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - September/October 2014 - 54
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - September/October 2014 - 55
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - September/October 2014 - 56
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - September/October 2014 - 57
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - September/October 2014 - 58
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - September/October 2014 - 59
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - September/October 2014 - 60
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - September/October 2014 - 61
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - September/October 2014 - 62
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - September/October 2014 - 63
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - September/October 2014 - 64
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - September/October 2014 - 65
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - September/October 2014 - 66
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - September/October 2014 - 67
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - September/October 2014 - 68
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - September/October 2014 - 69
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - September/October 2014 - 70
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - September/October 2014 - 71
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - September/October 2014 - 72
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - September/October 2014 - 73
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - September/October 2014 - 74
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - September/October 2014 - 75
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - September/October 2014 - 76
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - September/October 2014 - 77
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - September/October 2014 - 78
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - September/October 2014 - 79
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - September/October 2014 - 80
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - September/October 2014 - 81
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - September/October 2014 - 82
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - September/October 2014 - 83
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - September/October 2014 - 84
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - September/October 2014 - 85
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - September/October 2014 - 86
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - September/October 2014 - 87
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - September/October 2014 - 88
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - September/October 2014 - 89
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - September/October 2014 - 90
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - September/October 2014 - 91
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - September/October 2014 - 92
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - September/October 2014 - 93
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - September/October 2014 - 94
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - September/October 2014 - 95
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - September/October 2014 - 96
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - September/October 2014 - Cover3
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - September/October 2014 - Cover4
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pes/powerenergy_091020
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pes/powerenergy_070820
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pes/powerenergy_050620
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pes/powerenergy_030420
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pes/powerenergy_010220
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pes/powerenergy_111219
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pes/powerenergy_091019
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pes/powerenergy_070819
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pes/powerenergy_050619
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pes/powerenergy_030419
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pes/powerenergy_010219
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pes/powerenergy_111218
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pes/powerenergy_091018
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pes/powerenergy_070818
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pes/powerenergy_050618
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pes/powerenergy_030418
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pes/powerenergy_010218
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pes/powerenergy_111217
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pes/powerenergy_091017
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pes/powerenergy_070817
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pes/powerenergy_050617
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pes/powerenergy_030417
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pes/powerenergy_010217
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pes/powerenergy_111216
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pes/powerenergy_091016
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pes/powerenergy_070816
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pes/powerenergy_050616
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pes/powerenergy_030416
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pes/powerenergy_010216
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/ieee/powerenergy_010216
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pes/powerenergy_111215
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pes/powerenergy_091015
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pes/powerenergy_070815
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pes/powerenergy_050615
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pes/powerenergy_030415
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pes/powerenergy_010215
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pes/powerenergy_111214
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pes/powerenergy_091014
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pes/powerenergy_070814
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pes/powerenergy_050614
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pes/powerenergy_030414
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pes/powerenergy_010214
https://www.nxtbookmedia.com