IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - September/October 2014 - 54

-5
0
-4
0
-3
0
-2
0
-1
0
-5
0
5
10
20
30
40
50

(%)
2010-2039

2040-2069

2070-2099

25
30

Latitude

brazil and Colombia generate close to 80% of their electricity from hydro sources. Further, there is steady interest in
the region in continuing to exploit hydro resources not yet
harnessed for electricity generation. major power plants are
being built or planned in brazil, Chile, Colombia, ecuador,
and Peru. argentina and Chile share the world's third-largest
store of ice, the southern Patagonian ice Field, with major
rivers flowing out of it.
the latest iPCC report provides different case studies showing the impact in the region, where the production of energy
from renewable resources such as hydro and wind may suffer,
as it depends greatly on climatic conditions. it reports cases
of rivers with potential reductions in hydropower capacity
of from 35% to 53% by 2070-2099. While brazilian hydropower generation may experience a minor increase in energy
production in the south, the rest of the country could face a
significant reduction. Figure 2 illustrates the expected variations in energy from hydro sources in brazil, as reported by
schaeffer et al., with reductions as high as 60%. such losses of
hydropower generation could produce an impact amounting to
Us$1.5 billion in the Peruvian electricity sector.
the potential loss of a large percentage of hydro generation-one of the main contributors to the mitigation of ghg
emissions-is an unwelcome piece of news, not only because
of that contribution but because of the need to replace the lost
electricity using thermal generation. the iPCC indicates that in
brazil there would be an increase in natural gas and sugarcane
bagasse electricity generation of roughly 300 tWh, with an
increased cost of Us$7 billion annually. Changes in seasonality
and the total availability of water could increase complexities in
the operation of multiple basin schemes in Peru and Colombia.

35
40

45
50

55
(a)

(b)

(c)

figure 5. Projected precipitation changes in Chile (source:
CEPAL). (a) 2010-2039. (b) 2040-2069. (c) 2070-2099.

in particular, Chile is concerned with the potential
impacts of climate change on hydroelectric generation.
there have been significant decreases in rainfall in central Chile over the last 40 years, with a number of prolonged droughts lasting several years. Figure 3 shows the
decrease in stored energy in the main Chilean hydroelectric
Projected Changes in Hydroelectric
reservoirs over the last 12 years. although it is too early
Resources in Chile
one country in south america that is becoming very con- to attribute this decrease to climate change, these events
cerned with its emissions growth and the effects of climate demonstrate the effects that reduced water availability may
change is Chile. although Chile contributes only 0.2% have on the market, with high prices, reduced reliability,
of total global ghg emissions, it is concerned because and an increase in fossil-fuel-based generation together
its per capita Co2 emissions have grown to 4.5 t in 2013 with growth in ghg emissions.
the main problems that climate change can cause for hydrofrom 3.6 t in 2006. this is a trend in developing countries
with high economic growth (more than 5% annually) and electric generation occur as a result of changes in patterns, intensity, and extremes of precipitation; widespread snow and ice melt;
stable populations.
changes in river flows;
and evaporation. many of
table 1. The effect on energy generation of precipitation projections for the principal river basins
these processes eventually
in Chile, given as percentage declines with respect to the historical base (source: CEPAL).
affect the safety of dams if
Others
significant sudden changes
Aconcagua Maipo Cachapoal Maule Laja
Bio Bio South
Total
of river flows take place.
Yearly Energy 756
1,584
1,555
7,282
4,508 4,798
455
20,938
there is a direct correlation
(GWh)
between amounts of precip% Reductions
itation and hydroelectricity
generation (see Figure 4).
2011-2040
-4%
-1%
-10%
-3%
-7%
-33%
-3%
-11%
Further, as higher tempera2041-2070
-17%
-8%
-26%
-6%
-14% -38%
-5%
-17%
tures increase snow melt,
2071-2099
-18%
-9%
-27%
-11%
-17% -47%
-8%
-22%
this affects hydroelectric
54

ieee power & energy magazine

september/october 2014

Table of Contents for the Digital Edition of IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - September/October 2014