IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - September/October 2014 - 57

CO2e (Million t)

in the principal Chilean river basins through 2099, expressed as
percentage declines with respect to the historical base. major
contributors of hydroelectric energy, such as the maule and bio
bio rivers (see Figure 6), may face flow reductions by 2071-2099
of 11% and 47%, respectively. in general, all basins with hydroelectric generation will be adversely affected by climate change,
with an overall reduction of 22%. the only exception would be
future plants in Patagonia, which would suffer minimal impact.

Projected Electricity Contributions
to GHG Emissions in Chile

2030

figure 11. GHG emissions for the SIC and SING power
systems, as projected in Baseline 2007, using the mediumlow GDP scenario (source: MAPS Chile).

300
CO2e (Million t)

250

Baseline 2007

Hydro Reduction

200
150
100
50
0
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
2036
2037
2038
2039
2040
2041
2042
2043
2044
2045
2046
2047
2048
2049
2050

the most recent official Chilean ghg inventory (see
Figure 7) shows that the industry, transport, and electricity
generation sectors were the main emitters in 2006, contributing emissions equivalent to 18.5, 17.1, and 16.8 million
tons of Co2, respectively. it represents 66.2% of total emissions, leaving out the forestry Co2 capture. the emissions
of the industry sector include produced by manufacturing,
construction, mining, and industrial processes.
maPs Chile (www.mapschile.cl) has recently devised future
projections of ghg emissions for Chile. mitigation action Plans
and scenarios (maPs, www.mapsprogramme.org) is a collaborative initiative among developing countries to establish the
evidence base for their long-term transition to robust economies
that are both carbon efficient and climate resilient. the initiative began in south africa and currently has programs in brazil,
Chile, Colombia, and Peru. each country's project is driven by
a scientific team that performs detailed projection studies and
is supported though a participatory process that involves people
from the public, private, nongovernmental, and academic sectors.

90
80
Natural Gas Diesel Coal
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
2007 2010
2015
2020
2025
Year

Year

figure 12. The baseline 2007 projection of the impact of
hydroelectric generation reductions on the trajectory of GHG
emissions from electricity generation (source: MAPS Chile).

table 2. Mitigation actions in the electricity generation sector (source: MAPS Chile).
Sectors

Mitigation Actions

Description/Implementation

Electricity
generation

Modification of the
nonconventional renewable
energy law

The current energy law states that 20% of all electricity sold should be
generated using sources of nonconventional renewable energy (NCRE) by
2025. This action would increase the quota to 30% by 2030.

Incentivizing specific forms
of NCRE: geothermal, solar
photovoltaic (PV), wind, small
hydroelectric, and so on

This action would encourage the installation of a specific technology according
to its technical potential. For example, the targets for additional capacity by
2030 for solar and wind energy are 6,903 MW for PV and 9,520 MW for wind.
Chile issued, in 2013, a renewable energy law based on a quota system with a
target of 20% of NCRE supply by year 2025.

Exploiting the hydroelectric
resource in Chile's extreme south

This action would use the hydroelectric potential of the Aysen region. Two
specific projects have been evaluated in this zone: HidroAysen (2,750 MW)
and Cuervo (640 MW). This action envisions adding a total of 3,750 MW of
hydroelectric capacity by 2030.

Creating incentives to install
clean-coal technologies

This action would discourage the installation of new subcritical pulverized coal
technology plants, beginning in 2020.

Creating incentives to generate
electricity using liquefied natural
gas (LNG) as fuel

This action would replace 50% of the coal plants installed after 2020 (to
provide the additional coal-fired capacity required under the Baseline 2013
scenario) with plants using LNG.

Nuclear energy

This action would result in the installation of 6,000 MW of nuclear energy from
2030 to 2050.

Carbon tax

This action would impose a carbon tax of US$20 per ton of CO2 equivalent
beginning in 2017.

september/october 2014

ieee power & energy magazine

57


http://www.mapschile.cl http://www.mapsprogramme.org

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