IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - September/October 2014 - 71
Our analysis focused on surface winds and their impact
on storm surges and on precipitation and the associated flooding
throughout the region after landfall.
table 1. The WRF numerical experiment design (changes in air and soil temperature
and sea surface temperature are relative to the control simulation).
Numerical experiments
Air temperature
Initial and Boundary Conditions
Deep soil temperature
sea surface temperature
F2020: a climate-warming
scenario for 2020
+ 1 °C
+ 1 °C
+ 0.3 °C
+ 2 °C
+ 2 °C
+ 2 °C
+ 2 °C
+ 2 °C
+ 2 °C
+ 0.6 °C
+ 0.9 °C
+ 1.2 °C
+ 4 °C
+ 4 °C
+ 1.8 °C
F2050: three 2050
climate-warming
scenarios
F2090: a climate-warming
scenario for 2090
A
B
C
Understanding Superstorm Sandy
Through Weather Modeling
We used the advanced research version of the WRF model as
our primary atmospheric modeling tool. The WRF model was
developed jointly by NCAR, a number of government agencies, and the university research community. To conduct the
numerical studies of Superstorm Sandy, the WRF model was
configured as two nested domains: a coarse modeling domain
with 15-km horizontal grid spacing and a high-resolution
domain with 3-km grid spacing.
Two types of WRF simulations were performed. The first
was a simulation of Superstorm Sandy under current climatic
conditions (the control, or CNTL, simulation). The second
type consisted of scenario-based simulations of Superstorm
Sandy for future climatic conditions that included warmer
initial and boundary conditions. The first day of model simulation began at 18:00 UTC on 26 October 2012, and the final
time of simulation was at 00:00 UTC on 31 October 2012,
about 24 h after landfall in the United States.
Control Simulation
Figure 3 shows the control simulation storm track (green)
compared with the track from the National Hurricane Center
(NHC) observations (black). Although the WRF-predicted
location of Superstorm Sandy is slightly westward of its
actual track during the second intensification phase (the 12-h
period beginning at approximately 60 h into the forecast), the
overall evolution of the observed track-especially the timing
and location of landfall-was well reproduced by the WRF
model, as were the maximum surface-wind speed (about
september/october 2014
80 kn) and storm intensity as measured by surface pressure,
where a lower value reflects greater intensity (about 940 mb).
46 N
CNTL
F2020
F2050A
F2050B
F2050C
F2090
42 N
38 N
34 N
30 N
26 N
22 N
82 W
78 W
74 W
70 W
66 W
figure 5. A simulated Hurricane Sandy track in CNTL
(cyan), F2020 (purple), F2050A (gold), F2050B (red),
F2050C (blue), and F2090 (green) simulations. (Image used
with permission from NCAR.)
ieee power & energy magazine
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Table of Contents for the Digital Edition of IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - September/October 2014
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - September/October 2014 - Cover1
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IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - September/October 2014 - Cover3
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