IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - September/October 2014 - 74

When moving north, Atlantic hurricanes typically move in
a northeasterly direction and thus away from the coast,
due to the jet stream's prevailing westerly winds.

Far Rockaway Substation

5.41

6.62

3.26
2012

2050
Year
(a)

2090

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6
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4
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2
1
0

in western Long island, where it is increased by more than 40
mm for the 24-h period.

Storm Surge Analysis
and Flooding of Substations
based on the wrf sandy runs for present and future scenarios, a storm surge analysis identified surge heights and
the spatial extent of water on land, water depths, and the
final inundation extent. the data transfer between the atmospheric and storm surge model plays an important role, as
it ensures the consistent representation of the physical processes across the various models employed. for this analysis
the track location in time, maximum wind speed, pressure
drop, and the radius of maximum wind were the primary
variables from the atmospheric model used in the storm
surge assessment. furthermore, future sea level rise for 2050
and 2090 were also accounted for, following estimates provided by iPcc, in the form of constant vertical shifts of the
mean sea level relative to the present sea level.
the storm surge was simulated with a hydrodynamic
model driven by the wrf-simulated hurricane track with
a time-varying grid. the model was used to simulate the
superstorm sandy event (cntL), and the results were validated against national oceanic and atmospheric administration (noaa) buoy measurements. once validated, the
surge model was run using the results from the future superstorm sandy scenarios from the wrf model (see tables 1
and 2). the resulting maximum water levels computed for
the future simulations of sandy are significantly higher than
the actual levels recorded in some areas of the new jersey
and Long island coasts, due to changes in the local characteristics of the storm at landfall-primarily, location and,
secondarily, the storm's pressure and wind profiles.

Arverne Substation

4.55
2012

6.45

2050
Year
(b)

7.38

2090

Water Height (ft)

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1
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Water Height (ft)

temperature, sea surface temperature (sst), and soil temperatures were uniformly increased. the initial and boundary conditions were thus modified for each of the future
climate scenarios given as summarized in table 1. simulations were conducted for future warming conditions in
which the degree of temperature warming was taken from
estimates provided by the Fifth Assessment Report of the
intergovernmental Panel on climate change (iPcc) for a
future climate scenario around 2020 (f2020), three 2050
scenarios (f2050a-c), and a 2090 scenario (f2090). for
instance, in the f2020 simulation, the air temperature was
increased by 1 °c at all vertical levels in the atmosphere, the
sea surface temperature and soil temperature were increased
by 0.3 °c, and the deep soil temperature was increased by
1 °c (see table 1).
simulated sandy tracks for current and future conditions
are shown in figure 5. the tracks shift slightly to the north
in the future simulations; while the 2020 scenario shows a
minimal shift, the 2090 scenario makes landfall in western
Long island. as illustrated in table 2, the simulated future
storm landfall shifts north by 20-100 km, and the landfall
time is delayed by 2-5.5 h in simulations with future climatic conditions. notably, the intensity of future storms at
landfall, in terms of minimum pressure and maximum wind
speed, is within 5% of the control simulation.
along the coastlines in new jersey and new york, the
future sandy simulations produce more precipitation than the
control simulation (see figure 6)-approximately 15-40 mm
more for the 24-h period. increasing temperatures, and therefore more water vapor in the atmosphere, result in larger rainfall amounts in the general landfall areas. the most extreme
case (the 2090 scenario, with the highest temperature increase)
produces the greatest and most widespread rainfall, especially

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Woodmere Substation

5.77

6.93

3.83
2012

2050
Year
(c)

2090

figure 9. Modeled and projected flooding heights for the (a) Arverne, (b) Far Rockaway, and (c) Woodmere substations.
(Image used with permission from DNV GL.)
74

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september/october 2014

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