IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - September/October 2014 - 75

The flooding extent was simulated from the
values obtained at each grid cell using the output
of the storm surge model.
the flooding extent was simulated from the values
obtained at each grid cell using the output of the storm surge
model. the flooding assessment was performed using a
20-m digital terrain model of the unconfined floodplain. as
the flood wave moved over the floodplain, effects such as
flow over adverse slopes, attenuation, ponding, and backwater effects were also simulated. using the simulated surge for
the historic superstorm sandy case (cntL), the simulated
flooding extent compared well with actual observations on
Long island provided by fema.
based on this simulation and on geographical data about
substations within the counties of nassau and suffolk, we
were able to identify the substations that reported flooding
in these counties during sandy, identified by the red dots in
figure 7. the yellow dots in the figure indicate substations
that did not report flood impacts, and the simulated flood
correlates well with these also.
running the same flooding model with the storm surge
simulated for the future scenarios, it is estimated that 27 substations would potentially be affected by flooding under the 2050b
scenario and 30 under the 2090 scenario (see the yellow dots
in figure 8). under these scenarios, more than twice as many
substations would be affected as were flooded in 2012.
three substations-arverne, far rockaway, and woodmere-were selected to help illustrate the flood elevations
during sandy and under the climate change scenarios. these
substations were chosen based on their proximity to the estimated landfall of future sandy tracks and the damage they
suffered during the actual storm in 2012. figure 9 shows the
height of floodwater at these substation locations from the 2012
simulation, the 2050b scenario, and the 2090 scenario. Given
the long-lived nature of investments in substation infrastructure,
these projections show the importance of taking the potential
effects of future climate change into account when considering
measures to enhance the resilience of the electric grid.

Insights and Lessons Learned
a number of insights were gained and lessons learned during
the course of this study. from the outset, a mutual understanding and knowledge sharing among the different parties and disciplines were of paramount importance. the expertise of power
system engineers was fundamental in directing the climate
analysis toward the types of hazards and events that needed to
be modeled while ensuring that the climatic information was
useful for system-specific decision making. in this respect, the
spatial scale of the climate assessment played a crucial role, as
the information required is often highly localized. furthermore,
september/october 2014

compatibility among the climate, hazard, and impact models
was also important. one example was the characterization of
surface winds needed for assessing their impacts on the electric network. we needed to ensure that wind estimates obtained
from the climate model followed the requirements of the environmental and electrical engineering analysis. in the context of
the present analysis, we have highlighted the case of coupling
an atmospheric model with a storm surge model; similar considerations apply for wind impacts on poles and overhead lines
and the standards according to which these are designed. one
further insight we gained regards the time line of the analysis, the choice of which must take the design lifetime of the
components of the network into account. for storm hardening,
the lead time of the analysis must reflect the expected lifetime
of the most capital-intensive and long-lived components of the
network, plus possible lifetime extensions.

For Further Reading
V. s. Gornitz, s. couch, and e. K. Hartig, "impacts of sea
level rise in the new york city metropolitan area," Glob.
Planet. Change, vol. 32, pp. 61-88, 2001.
n. Lin, K. emanuel, m. oppenheimer, and e. Vanmarcke, "Physically based assessment of hurricane surge
threat under climate change," Nat. Clim. Change, vol. 2,
pp. 462-467, 2012.
c. schar, c. frei, D. Ltithi, and H. c. Davies, "surrogate
climate-change scenarios for regional climate models," Geophy. Res. Lett., vol. 23, pp. 669-672, 1996.
t. j. Galarneau, jr., c. a. Davis, and m. a. shapiro,
"intensification of Hurricane sandy (2012) through extratropical warm core seclusion," Mon. Wea. Rev., vol. 141,
pp. 4296-4321, 2013.

Biographies
David Yates is with the national center for atmospheric research, boulder, colorado.
Byron Quan Luna is with DnV GL, HØvik, norway.
Roy Rasmussen is with the national center for atmospheric research, boulder, colorado.
Dick Bratcher is with DnV GL, HØvik, norway.
Luca Garrè is with DnV GL, HØvik, norway.
Fei Chen is with the national center for atmospheric
research, boulder, colorado.
Mukul Tewari is with the national center for atmospheric research, boulder, colorado.
Peter Friis-Hansen is with DnV GL, HØvik, norway.
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