IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - September/October 2021 - 60

futures. Typically, we ensure that these scenarios vary across
several key parameters, including demand, technology, policy,
and environmental conditions.
For the 2020 ISP, we associated each scenario with a particular
representative concentration pathway (RCP). These RCPs
describe potential trajectories for greenhouse gases and their
impact on temperature rise by the year 2100. The average temperature
rise ranged from 1.4 °C (RCP 1.9) to > 4.5 °C (RCP
8.6). These trajectories are then aligned to Australian policy settings
and used as an input that limits annual carbon emissions.
More emission reduction is naturally associated with mild temperature
rise scenarios.
In effect, these scenarios describe the potential environments
in which Australia's energy networks may operate in the
long term. Consequently, they determine the inputs to the modeling
framework, which includes four main components:
✔ capacity outlook model
✔ time-sequential modeling
✔ gas supply model
✔ engineering assessment.
These four components are interlinked, so we take a multistage
process with several feedback loops, as shown in Figure
5. We perform multiple iterations of modeling to converge
on a reasonable view as to how the gas and electricity
systems may develop under each scenario.
The Capacity Outlook Model
The first stage of the model is to determine the capacity
outlook for both the gas and electricity infrastructures. The
capacity outlook allows us to estimate the major investment
decisions for both electricity generation and transmission and
gas supply and transmission that result in the most cost-efficient
Score Value-Wind
Score Value-Solar
0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1
(a)
0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1
(b)
figure 3. The results from using 10 development criteria to inform potential REZ locations to connect (a) wind and (b)
solar plants. (Source: DNV GL; used with permission.)
60
ieee power & energy magazine
september/october 2021

IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - September/October 2021

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Contents
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