IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - November/December 2014 - 27

To date, FERC initiatives have focused on coordinating
real-time gas-electric system operations,
not necessarily on longer-term planning.

november/december 2014

Megawatts Equivalent

Millions of Cubic Feet per Day

parties focused on gas-electric integration. To investigate the
adequacy of gas supply in New England, ISO-NE recently
Retirements New Builds
Net
Type
2014-2016 2014-2018 Change
commissioned another natural gas study that focused on benchmarking the 2013-2014 winter operations. Conducted by ICF
Coal
-20
0
-20
International, the study revealed clear limitations in natural gas
Gas/Oil
-11
+17
+5
supply availability for power generation. The benchmarking
Nuclear
-2
+6
+4
study provides an assessment of the balance between nonpower
gas loads throughout the 2013-2014 winter and gas supply
Renewables
0
+10
+10
for New England, including operationally available capacity
Others
0
+1
+1
for all pipelines entering New England, LNG imports into the
Total
33
33
0
area, and supplies from peak-shaving facilities. It shows that
regional gas supplies available to power generators were below
1,000 MMft3/d for approximately 45 days during the 2013- figure 8. Power plant capacity retirements and new builds
2014 winter and under 500 MMft3/d for roughly 20 days (see (GW), 2014-2018.
Figure 9). This available gas supply provided fuel for between
2 GW and 5 GW of gas generation at applicable heat rates. The constraints for New England that were observed during the
supply levels are relatively low versus historical averages for gas 2013-2014 winter are likely to continue well into the future,
used by power providers in New England. The conclusion is barring significant pipeline capacity expansion, significant
therefore that the cold winter weather clearly limited the amount incremental deliveries of LNG into the market, or expanded
oil backup programs.
of supply available to power generators.
The ICF study also projected gas supplies remaining for
electric generators in 2019-2020 by using the same study In Search of Solutions
assumptions to arrive at the balance for this past winter and To date, FERC initiatives have focused on coordinating realusing 20 years' worth of historical temperature data. The pro- time gas-electric system operations, not necessarily on lonjected levels of gas supply were compared against the ISO-NE ger-term planning. FERC Order 787 allows interstate natural
forecast of daily gas use by power providers, and the results gas pipelines and electric transmission system operators to
of the comparison are summarized in Figure 10. The intent share nonpublic operational information with each other to
of the comparison is to determine
the number of days during which
gas demand would exceed avail2,000
10,000
able supplies across the different
1,800
temperature scenarios and iden1,600
8,000
tify the amount of the gas deficit.
1,400
The analysis indicates between
1,200
five and 51 days of deficit for the
6,000
electric sector during the winter of
1,000
2019-2020, depending on weather
800
4,000
conditions. In a very cold winter
600
weather scenario that closely aligns
400
2,000
with the 2013-2014 winter, there
200
will be roughly 50 days of deficit.
0
0
In addition, the comparison shows
1 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90
sizable amounts of deficit, averagWinter Days
1 December Through 28 Feburary
ing between 1 GW and 2 GW of
Ordered Coldest to Warmest Day
electrical capacity. This look forward suggests that the gas supply figure 9. Projected gas supplies for power generators for winter 2013-2014.
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