IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - November/December 2014 - 82

Electric Simulation Model
Emission
Constraints

Existing
Infrastructure

Entry/Exit

Natural Gas Simulation Models
Load

LDC Forecasts

Historical Data

Fuel
Prices
Noncore Demand

AURORAxmp

Hourly
Generation

Existing
Infrastructure

Infrastructure
Expansions

Core (RCI) Demand

Daily
Aggregates

Gas-Side
Contingencies

GPCM

WinFlow
Hourly
Profiles

Hourly
Gas Burns

Electric-Side
Contingencies

Constraints
Target 2

WinTran

Target 3

Contingency
Results

figure 3. Modeling system interactions.

during the polar vortex, Ferc reported that lost generation
due to forced outages and derates amounted to 41,336 MW
in PJM, 1,473 MW in iso-ne, 4,135 MW in nYiso, and
32,813 MW in Miso. Fuel issues, including deliverability
and handling problems with other fuels as well as natural
gas, resulted in generation losses of 9,718 MW (24% of the
total lost generation) in PJM, 1,473 MW (100%) in iso-ne,
2,235 MW (54%) in nYiso, and 6,666 MW (20%) in Miso.
as the winter progressed, fuel-related outages and generator
derates continued to plague the PPas, resulting in continued stress on the ability of electric systems to meet demand
regardless of price. recognizing new england's vulnerability, iso-ne was prescient in formulating and then obtaining
Ferc approval in september 2013 to implement its Winter
reliability solutions Program. the program served as an
operational hedge that was designed to ensure the availability
of oil-fired energy during cold snaps. iso-ne's program performed as designed, providing operators with sufficient liquidity to avoid invoking emergency measures.

Increased Reliance on Natural Gas
Prolific shale gas production from Marcellus has motivated
gas producers to foot the bill for major pipeline and storage
expansions across the study region. natural gas prices have
remained low "into the pipe" but have nevertheless been high
or even skyrocketed in many parts of the study region. the
gap between the cost of gas into the pipe and the value of
82

ieee power & energy magazine

natural gas in end-use markets reflects a disconnect between
supply and demand. experience shows that disconnects of this
sort are ultimately monetized by various market participants:
pipeline operators, producers, and end users. across a portion
of the eiPc study region, the disconnect can be explained by
pipeline delivery constraints in the face of robust demand for
natural gas to serve rci customers and at the same time provide adequate supply to meet the simultaneous demands of
combined-cycle plants, peakers, and steam turbine generators.
the gas price superspikes observed this past winter can be
explained by a transient, short-term disequilibrium between
supply and demand-simply put, sustained congestion. congestion is a natural artifact of pipelines being sized and operated to meet the requirements of firm entitlement holders. in
performing the multitarget analysis set forth in the study, Lai
has focused on calibrating the frequency and magnitude of
pipeline congestion and constraints for serving the needs of
gas-fired electric generation, by location, across nearly onehalf of the continental United states and ontario.
across the United states, the share of gas-fired electric
energy production has increased from 18% in 2004 to 27%
in 2013. in certain parts of the study region, reliance on gasfired generation is much higher than the national average: it
accounts for as much as 45% of total generation in new York
and close to 50% of all the electricity produced in new england. increased dependence on natural gas appears to be an
inexorable trend across the eastern interconnection, one that
november/december 2014



Table of Contents for the Digital Edition of IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - November/December 2014

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IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - November/December 2014 - Cover3
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