IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - November/December 2014 - 85
table 1. Generator statistics by PPA.
PPA
Total Capacity
(GW)
Gas-Capable
Capacity (GW)
% of
Total
Interstate/InterprovincialServed Capacity (GW)
Intrastate/LDC-Served
Capacity (GW)
PJM
185
80
43%
40.3
38.7
MISO
177
69
39%
44.6
24.4
NYISO
38
21
55%
4.3
16.7
ISO-NE
35
18.6
54%
14.3
4.3
TVA
34
12.2
36%
9.9
2.3
IESO
33
9.9
28%
1.2
8.7
Total
502
210.7
42%
114.6
95.1
three different gas demand scenarios were developed for
target 2: reference, high, and low. the reference gas demand
scenario represents a forecast that is in accord with the economic, market, and regulatory assumptions characterizing each
of the six PPas' planning processes over the five- and ten-year
study horizons. the starting point for the reference gas demand
scenario was the roll-Up integration case of the eastern interconnection prepared by the eiPc steady state Modeling and
Load Flow Working group (ssMLFWg). the ssMLFWg
consists of representatives from each nerc-registered planning authority (Pa) that is party to the eiPc analysis team's
agreement. the roll-Up integration case is an integrated power
flow model incorporating the regional expansion plans for the
eastern interconnection as they existed in early 2013. the
ssMLFWg prepared the 2018 and 2023 models by aggregating the resources, planning forecasts, and reliability standards
of eiPc members, with sufficient analysis of the rolled-up plan
to ensure the simultaneous feasibility of the individual plans
submitted. as a steady-state power flow model, the roll-Up
integration case simulates the integrated power system for two
"snapshots," the 2018 and 2023 summer peak hours. the input
data to the roll-Up integration case included the load forecasts,
energy-efficiency and demand-side resources, and existing and
planned generation resources, as well as a representation of the
electric transmission topology, including planned transmission
expansions for each of the eiPc Pas.
two other future scenarios were constructed to bracket
the range of probable bandwidth in gas demand and gas profile surrounding the reference gas demand scenario. these
alternative gas demand scenarios were not intended to reflect
extreme conditions or low-probability events but reasonable
bounds around the realm of plausible outcomes. the high gas
demand scenario represents a "plausible maximum" level and
profile of gas requirements across the study region, driven
primarily by increased deactivation or retirement of coal
plants, lower delivered natural gas prices, and higher electric
loads. the lower delivered gas prices used in the high gas
demand scenario are attributable to prolific shale gas production, greater than anticipated retirements of coal and nuclear
units, and higher electricity demand growth. conversely, the
november/december 2014
low gas demand scenario assumes higher delivered gas prices,
greater growth in renewable generating capacity, and lower
electricity demand growth compared with the reference gas
demand scenario. the low gas demand scenario represents a
"plausible minimum" level and profile of gas requirements,
driven primarily by the displacement of gas-fired generation as a result of the addition of renewable resources, higher
delivered natural gas prices, and lower electric loads. the
high and low gas demand scenarios represent energy futures
in which one or more of the primary factors driving natural
gas demand fall significantly outside the values reflected in
the reference gas demand scenario.
since the finalization of the roll-Up integration case in
early 2013, there have been certain infrastructure changes
reflecting the ongoing nature of the PPas' planning processes and the updating of various interconnection queues.
the PPas have therefore delineated updates to the input
assumptions applicable to all three gas demand scenarios.
accordingly, in the first quarter of 2014, the PPas provided
Lai with lists of system updates, including new supply
resources, new transmission projects, and generator additions and deactivations that have taken place since the development of the roll-Up integration case. certain generator
ratings were also revised based on new capacity uprates and
derates. these infrastructure changes have been incorporated into the reference gas demand scenario's "update sensitivity." similarly, update sensitivities for the high and low
gas demand scenarios based on the updated infrastructure
information were constructed. the gas demand scenario
update sensitivities thus constitute the foundation for the
array of other sensitivities that have been formulated to test
the impact of changing a single variable or a set of variables
on gas demand across the study region. eiPc's stakeholders have had significant input in formulating the composition
of sensitivity cases to be tested in the target 2 simulation
and mathematical models used to identify the frequency and
duration of locational constraints across the study region.
the PPas provided information regarding the transfer limits between PPas, between zones within each PPa (including
multizone simultaneous interface limits), and between zones
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