IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - November/December 2014 - 87

Risk factors are not fixed constructs: they are constantly
changing in response to economic, regulatory, technological,
and market dynamics.
demand scenario. gas-side contingencies encompassed the
loss of supply, loss of storage, loss of key pipeline segments
(including a postulated guillotine cut to a marine segment),
and loss of compression. the approximate footprint of the
consequent generation at risk attributable to each gas-side
contingency was first identified within gPcM, so that the
relevant local infrastructure for each contingency could be
defined for modeling in WinFlow and Wintran. By thus
identifying appropriate boundaries for each contingency, Lai
avoided the need to produce hydraulic models of the entire
study region. this provided the PPas with a state-of-theart modeling tool that reveals the magnitude, duration, and
spatial impact of a postulated gas-side perturbation in areas
with concentrated gas-fired generation while simultaneously
reducing the total cost of and effort required for the study.
the transient model solutions quantified how long a particular power plant or group of power plants would remain
online following a postulated contingency event. the gas
pressure required to maintain full load on large combustion
turbines varies widely, from less than 400 psi to more than
900 psi depending on the type of gas turbine. For example,
ge's LMs100 gas turbine requires gas supply to the engine
at a typical pressure of 830 psig and a nominal pressure of
850 psig for full-power operation. Pressure losses outside
the engine, such as those in metering and pressure regulation equipment, cause the pressure required at the connection to the pipeline to be even higher. on-site compression
is required when the gas turbine full load required pressure exceeds the operational pressure the pipeline operator can guarantee. the existence of an on-site compressor
will improve the ability of a gas turbine to accommodate
variations in supply pressure. the gas pressure required
to maintain operation at a combustion turbine is an order
of magnitude higher than that required by gas-fired steam
plants. our study results also revealed whether there are viable pipeline work-arounds and sufficient line pack to enable
at-risk generation to continue to operate for hours, minutes,
or seconds beyond the gas contingency.
in addition to gas-side contingencies, we also considered
various contingencies that might occur within the electric
sector. the magnitude and location of regional gas infrastructure impacts associated with electric system outages
were investigated in a variety of ways. additional aUroraxmp simulations tested the impacts on the profile of
gas use by generators when there is a loss of a large, nongas base-load generation plant or high-voltage transmission
line. the resultant transportation constraints were affected
november/december 2014

as generation shifted from one location to another or from
a nongas plant to a gas plant. Using the Wintran transient
hydraulic model, we also tested the pressure impacts on gas
pipelines resulting from a sudden loss of gas demand at particular plants and the potential adverse effects of the electric
system restoration process following an outage on the operational capability of the pipeline, storage, and distribution
infrastructure. this evaluation accounted for the iterative
effects of balancing electric restoration with transient gas
system constraints. the examination of a widespread blackout addressed reliance on electric compressors in key locations as well as the sustainability of line pressure and flow
to achieve minimum MW loading requirements to ensure
generator stability during the restoration process.
For both gas- and electric-side contingencies, the study
examined ways in which the effects of these contingencies
could be mitigated. on the gas side, potential operational
workarounds involve alternate transportation paths-either
on the same pipeline or an interconnected pipeline-as well
as increased storage withdrawals. When operational contingencies arise, pipelines have demonstrated a common interest, that is, they have exhibited a high degree of cooperation
enabling them to take immediate action to mitigate physical
constraints. demand-side measures were included in the
solution set, such as identifying plants that are vulnerable
to interruption and that would benefit from the installation
of dual-fuel capacity. the study addresses the pros and cons of
different solution sets in light of the commercial interests of primary entitlement holders, Ferc and neB precedent, and
the environmental policies and planning criteria that state
regulatory commissions and the ontario energy Board have
recently promulgated.

Target 4: Analysis of Dual-Fuel Capability
our target 4 work efforts considered several aspects of
dual-fuel operation. initially, Lai constructed a database
identifying the storage capacity and liquid fuel resupply
methods at selected existing dual-fuel generators within
the study region. in addition to data provided by the PPas,
we relied on such public sources as air permits, tank permits, and eia for this data. Lai also examined the operating characteristics of dual-fuel units associated with
burning either gas or oil. Lai prepared a comprehensive
spreadsheet with key operational data for the principal gas
turbines in simple and combined-cycle operation, including maximum output, heat rate, and other data for gas and
liquid fuel operation.
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Table of Contents for the Digital Edition of IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - November/December 2014

IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - November/December 2014 - Cover1
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - November/December 2014 - Cover2
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IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - November/December 2014 - Cover3
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - November/December 2014 - Cover4
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