IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - November/December 2017 - 54

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(a)

(b)

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(c)

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figure 4. The load shape of one CAISO load forecasting area between 2010 (lightest shade) and 2016 (darkest shade): (a)
fall, (b) winter, (c) spring, and (d) summer. The x-axis is hour of the day, and the y-axis is the load.

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Weekend Effect: Sunny (s) Versus Cloudy (C)

C 7 May

C 9 Apr

S 30 Apr

S 16 Apr

Date

Day of
Week

Temperature °F

Sunny or
Cloudy?

7 May

Saturday

55/65

Cloudy

9 April

Saturday

58/64

Cloudy

30 April

Saturday

55/79

Sunny

16 April

Saturday

49/80

Sunny

figure 5. The impact of cloud cover on load for similar
days (in terms of season, day of week, and temperature).
The x-axis is the hour of the day, and the y-axis is the load.
54

ieee power & energy magazine

Weather variability compounds the impact of rapid DPV
growth. Load forecasting models may select historical days
of similar seasons, days of the week, temperatures, and so
forth on which to base the load forecast. The effects of cloud
cover versus sunny conditions shown in Figure 5 illustrate
a significant impact on load during the middle of the day.
These effects can make it difficult for load forecasting mod-
els to select appropriately similar days.
On 19 September 2016, Southern California, which was
exceptionally warm, had a low pressure system moving up
the coast from Baja California. Weather forecasters pre-
dicted this system would bring cloud cover and cooler tem-
peratures to Southern California. If you were the real-time
system operator, would you expect the approaching storm to
increase the load (due to loss of solar generation) or decrease
the load (due to temperature reduction)? The real-time oper-
ations team struggled with this bimodal distribution of pos-
sibilities that day. While they knew the storm system was
coming and that it would have positive and negative impacts
on load, they were uncertain about the net impact. On this
particular day, the load dropped significantly: the reduction
in temperature of about 10 °F outweighed the reduction in
DPV output (see Figure 6).
november/december 2017



Table of Contents for the Digital Edition of IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - November/December 2017

IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - November/December 2017 - Cover1
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - November/December 2017 - Cover2
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - November/December 2017 - 1
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IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - November/December 2017 - 115
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - November/December 2017 - 116
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - November/December 2017 - Cover3
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - November/December 2017 - Cover4
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