IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - November/December 2019 - 69

The main goal of the 2015 Paris Agreement is to limit "the
increase in the global average temperature to well below 2 °C
above preindustrial levels and to pursue efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5 °C." To compare the costs and benefits
of different ways to achieve the Paris Agreement, engineers,
scientists, and economists have developed integrated assessment
models to explore the interactions between physical climate,
land usage, energy systems, and the economy. Scenarios differ
based on the plausible speed of change, the choice and development rates of technologies, efficiency measures, the distribution
of greenhouse gas (GHG) reduction among regions and sectors,
lifestyle changes, economic development, and the possibility of
removing carbon dioxide (CO2) from the air in large quantities,
among other factors. Figure 2 shows a set of possible scenarios
that would limit the global average temperature rise to 1.5 °C.
Despite the large variations between 1.5 °C target scenarios (Figure 2), all will require global net CO2 emissions
to reach zero by around 2050. Other GHGs, such as methane and nitrous oxide, must also be reduced. The majority
of CO2 emissions come from burning fossil fuels for energy
in electricity generation, heat provision, and transport and
industry, as well as from chemical processes in industry.
Therefore, countries implementing the Paris Agreement
have made specific commitments to reducing CO2 emissions in
energy use. For example, in 2016, 80% of Canada's electricity
was generated from zero-carbon sources, and the federal government has targeted increasing this amount to 90% by 2030. The
German climate protection plan translates to an estimated share
of 65% of gross electricity consumption covered by renewable
energy source (RES) by 2030, starting from a 31.6% share in
2016. Denmark, covering 61% of the electricity consumption by
RES already in 2017, aims for 100% in 2030, triggering electrification of other sectors as well.
In the United States, individual states have made commitments aligned with the Paris Agreement. California passed
SB 100 in 2018, a bill that committed the state to a 60% share
of renewables in yearly electricity generation by 2030 and
100% clean electricity by 2045 (clean includes low-emission
renewables, nuclear, and generators with CCS). In late 2018,
the state of New York announced that a carbon-neutral electricity supply by 2040 is a legislative priority. In early 2019,
U.S. public opinion was mounting toward extending the carbon-neutral targets to many other states.
In 2009, the EU, which was responsible for 10% of current
global GHG emissions, set a goal to reduce these emissions by
80-95% by 2050. In 2018, the EU Commission published modeling results for 1.5 °C-compatible scenarios that reach GHG
neutrality by 2050. The split of emissions among sectors, shown
in Figure 3, is typical for what is required in other regions of the
world: emissions first reduced in power, reaching zero by 2040,
and in 2050 some emissions remain in sectors that are more difficult to decarbonize, such as residential and tertiary demand
(primarily space and water heating and also cooking), industry,
november/december 2019

transport, and agriculture. Electricity is prioritized since the
strategies for decarbonizing other sectors often rely on electrification with low-emission electricity sources. For example, space
and water heating can be electrified efficiently using heat pumps
and transport using electric or hydrogen fuel cell (FC) vehicles.
Some industry branches, such as ammonia production or the
direct reduction of iron ore, can also be electrified indirectly
with hydrogen is produced by electrolyzing water.

In Brief: Challenges for Systems
With a High Share of Variable
Renewable Energies
Reducing emissions in the power sector often begins by replacing fossil-fired power plants with variable renewable energies
(VREs). Increasing the share of VREs in the energy supply
challenges power systems, especially when this share is very
large. Over the course of each day, systems with more than
50-70% of electricity demand provided by VREs (depending on the system) experience a growing need for operational
flexibility to balance production variability against demand.
Additionally, VREs often push thermal plants out of the market, due to the low marginal cost of wind and solar sources.
These thermal plants traditionally provide important system
services and vital operational flexibility that then have to
be delivered through other means, such as improved market
designs and products on both the generation and demand sides
to ensure there are sufficient balancing mechanisms. These
balancing mechanisms can be delivered by various means
at different voltage levels and with very different lead times,
e.g., building strong high-voltage (HV) transmission systems

Global Total Net
CO2 Emission (Billion Tons of CO2 per Year)
40
30
20

1.5 °C High Overshoot
1.5 °C Low Overshoot
Below 1.5 °C

10
0
-10
-20
-30

20
10
20
20
20
30
20
40
20
50
20
60
20
70
20
80
20
90
21
00

Translating Paris Across
Borders and Sectors

Year

figure 2. Different global scenarios for CO 2 emissions
with global warming of 1.5 °C. Scenarios that delay emission reductions tend to overshoot the temperature target
and require more negative net emissions after 2050.
(Source: IPCC Special Report on Global Warming of 1.5 °C,
2018; reproduced using data from https://doi.org/10.22022/
SR15/08-2018.15429 and the code from https://doi
.org/10.22022/SR15/08-2018.15428.)
ieee power & energy magazine

69


https://www.doi.org/10.22022/SR15/08-2018.15429 https://www.doi.org/10.22022/SR15/08-2018.15429 https://doi.org/10.22022/SR15/08-2018.15428 https://doi.org/10.22022/SR15/08-2018.15428

IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - November/December 2019

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Contents
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - November/December 2019 - Cover1
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