IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - Spanish - March/April 2021 - 29

2 días antes de operación
Restricciones
de transmisión
genéricas

1

2.7 %

3.2 %

3.6 %

2

3.7 %

3

4%

4

5.3 %

5

Rendimiento de pronóstico eólico 1 h antes
5.3 %

6

5.6 %

Los pronósticos potenciales de producción de energía renovable son esenciales para la integración de grandes cantidades de generación de esta energías. El ERCOT adquirió
su primer servicio de pronóstico eólico en 2010 y sumó un
segundo servicio en 2017 para ofrecer una predicción centralizada de toda la generación de energía renovable conectada
a su red de transmisión. Ambos utilizan información meteorológica para sitios específicos, rastreada por telemetría
mediante fuentes de generación eólica, para generar pronósticos de producción de potencia eólica por cada fuente. Al
sumar otro servicio de pronósticos eólicos se proporcionó a
la sala de control del ERCOT la capacidad de mejorar la conciencia situacional y una mayor resiliencia para la provisión
de esta información crítica.
Con la adición del segundo proveedor, se obtuvieron
nuevas capacidades de pronóstico para climas extremos
por parte de ambos proveedores y quedaron a disposición
de la sala de control. Además del pronóstico de generación
eólica a mediano plazo, que se genera cada hora durante las
siguientes 168 horas, el ERCOT también cuenta con un pronóstico eólico intrahorario, que se genera a una resolución
de 5 minutos por las siguientes 2 horas. El rendimiento promedio, es decir, el error porcentual absoluto medio, de los

pronósticos eólicos a mediano plazo del día en adelanto y de
1 hora antes en 2019 fueron del 4.6 % y 2.7 %, respectivamente (véase la figura 8).
En 2017, el ERCOT inició pronósticos solares para la
generación solar con un tamaño mayor a 10 MW, conectada a la red de transmisión. El rendimiento promedio de
los pronósticos de producción de potencia solar del día en
adelanto y de 1 hora antes del ERCOT en 2019 tuvo errores
porcentuales absolutos medios del 6.55 % y 5.7 %, respectivamente.

Error
porcentual absoluto medio

Pronósticos de generación de energía
renovable

0
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Año

figura 8. El rendimiento anual del pronóstico de producción de potencia eólica 1 hora antes.

Día operativo

Próximo día

Estudio multihorario para todo el día
Compromiso
Mercado
del
de la unidad
predespacho de confiabilidad Estudio
del
diario,
para el del día en adelanto próximo
para
el
Día
1
Día 1
día

Estudio de la hora de carga máxima

Estudio de la hora de carga máxima

Estudio de
espacio intermedio
Se ejecuta cada 10 min
Evaluación de estabilidad de tensión
Evaluación de seguridad transitoria
Monitoreo de inercia y avance
Monitoreo de adecuación de reserva y avance
Monitoreo de adecuación de capacidad y avance
Capacidad de respuesta física
Se ejecuta cada 4 s

figura 9. Estudios operativos y herramientas de conciencia situacional.
marzo/abril 2021	

ieee power & energy magazine 	

29



IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - Spanish - March/April 2021

Table of Contents for the Digital Edition of IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - Spanish - March/April 2021

Contents
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - Spanish - March/April 2021 - Cover1
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - Spanish - March/April 2021 - Cover2
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - Spanish - March/April 2021 - Contents
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - Spanish - March/April 2021 - 2
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - Spanish - March/April 2021 - 3
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - Spanish - March/April 2021 - 4
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - Spanish - March/April 2021 - 5
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - Spanish - March/April 2021 - 6
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - Spanish - March/April 2021 - 7
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - Spanish - March/April 2021 - 8
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - Spanish - March/April 2021 - 9
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - Spanish - March/April 2021 - 10
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - Spanish - March/April 2021 - 11
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - Spanish - March/April 2021 - 12
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IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - Spanish - March/April 2021 - 14
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - Spanish - March/April 2021 - 15
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IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - Spanish - March/April 2021 - 115
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - Spanish - March/April 2021 - 116
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - Spanish - March/April 2021 - Cover3
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - Spanish - March/April 2021 - Cover4
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