IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - Spanish - May/June 2020 - 37

un nivel a otro. A un nivel granular (es decir, baja tensión)
la demanda suele ser más volátil y muestra mayores incertidumbres, mientras que las variaciones de carga tienden a
cancelarse cuando se agregan más a los niveles de alta tensión. Además, los diferentes tipos de clientes demuestran

0.4

Densidad

0.3
0.2
0.1
0
0

2

4

6

8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24
(Hora)
(a)

0.5
0.4
Densidad

intermitencia de la energía renovable, mientras que la de
los consumidores de R4 podría deberse a variaciones en los
lugares y tiempos de carga.
La figura 2 muestra las distribuciones temporales de la
ocurrencia máxima diaria para los consumidores de pequeñas y medianas empresas (PyME), que parecen diferentes
de los clientes residenciales. La mayoría de cargas máximas
ocurren constantemente entre las 8:00 a.m. y el mediodía, en
horario laboral. Las PyME se consideran consumidores con
bajas incertidumbres debido a sus horas de trabajo regulares.
La precisión de un modelo de pronóstico de carga máxima
con un día de antelación se puede utilizar para cuantificar
la magnitud de la incertidumbre. Un modelo autorregresivo
integrado de media móvil (ARIMA, por sus siglas en inglés)
presentado en este artículo captura las autocorrelaciones
de la demanda estandarizada. Las previsibilidades de los
diferentes tipos de clientes se evalúan a través de un error
absoluto medio (EAM), con un EAM más bajo que indica
un mejor rendimiento del pronóstico. Los grupos R1, R2
y PyME son altamente predecibles, con bajas incertidumbres como resultado de estilos de vida regulares u horarios
de trabajo constantes. El Grupo R3, consumidores con FV,
es menos predecible como resultado de la naturaleza intermitente de la energía renovable. El Grupo R4 es el grupo
menos predecible en todos los tipos de clientes, lo que podría
deberse a comportamientos irregulares en la carga de VE
(véase la tabla 2).

0.3
0.2
0.1

Incertidumbres en los niveles de
tensión de la red

0

Las incertidumbres no se distribuyen uniformemente por
toda la red de distribución porque varían drásticamente de

0

2

4

6

8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24
(Hora)
(b)

0.4
0.4
0.3
Densidad

Densidad

0.3
0.2

0.2
0.1

0.1
0
0
0

2

4

6

0

8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24
(Hora)

2

4

6

8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24
(Hora)
(c)

figura 2. La distribución temporal de la demanda máxima
de los consumidores de las PYME.

figura 3. La distribución temporal de la demanda máxima
en los niveles (a) AT, (b) MT y (c) BT.

tabla 2. La precisión de la predicción para diferentes
tipos de clientes.

tabla 3. La precisión de la predicción en los
diferentes niveles tensión.

Tipo de cliente

R1

EAM

0.0608 0.0602 0.1178

mayo/junio 2020	

R2

R3

R4

PYME

0.2624 0.0673

Nivel de tensión

BT

MT

AT

MAPE (%)

55.78

12.83

4.21

ieee power & energy magazine 	

37



IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - Spanish - May/June 2020

Table of Contents for the Digital Edition of IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - Spanish - May/June 2020

Contents
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - Spanish - May/June 2020 - Cover1
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - Spanish - May/June 2020 - Cover2
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - Spanish - May/June 2020 - Contents
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - Spanish - May/June 2020 - 2
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - Spanish - May/June 2020 - 3
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - Spanish - May/June 2020 - 4
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - Spanish - May/June 2020 - 5
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - Spanish - May/June 2020 - 6
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - Spanish - May/June 2020 - 7
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - Spanish - May/June 2020 - 8
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - Spanish - May/June 2020 - 9
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - Spanish - May/June 2020 - 10
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - Spanish - May/June 2020 - 11
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - Spanish - May/June 2020 - 12
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - Spanish - May/June 2020 - 13
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - Spanish - May/June 2020 - 14
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - Spanish - May/June 2020 - 15
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - Spanish - May/June 2020 - 16
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - Spanish - May/June 2020 - 17
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - Spanish - May/June 2020 - 18
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - Spanish - May/June 2020 - 19
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - Spanish - May/June 2020 - 20
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - Spanish - May/June 2020 - 21
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - Spanish - May/June 2020 - 22
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - Spanish - May/June 2020 - 23
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - Spanish - May/June 2020 - 24
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - Spanish - May/June 2020 - 25
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - Spanish - May/June 2020 - 26
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - Spanish - May/June 2020 - 27
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - Spanish - May/June 2020 - 28
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - Spanish - May/June 2020 - 29
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - Spanish - May/June 2020 - 30
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - Spanish - May/June 2020 - 31
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - Spanish - May/June 2020 - 32
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - Spanish - May/June 2020 - 33
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - Spanish - May/June 2020 - 34
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - Spanish - May/June 2020 - 35
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - Spanish - May/June 2020 - 36
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - Spanish - May/June 2020 - 37
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - Spanish - May/June 2020 - 38
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - Spanish - May/June 2020 - 39
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - Spanish - May/June 2020 - 40
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - Spanish - May/June 2020 - 41
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - Spanish - May/June 2020 - 42
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - Spanish - May/June 2020 - 43
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - Spanish - May/June 2020 - 44
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - Spanish - May/June 2020 - 45
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - Spanish - May/June 2020 - 46
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - Spanish - May/June 2020 - 47
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - Spanish - May/June 2020 - 48
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - Spanish - May/June 2020 - 49
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - Spanish - May/June 2020 - 50
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - Spanish - May/June 2020 - 51
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - Spanish - May/June 2020 - 52
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - Spanish - May/June 2020 - 53
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - Spanish - May/June 2020 - 54
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - Spanish - May/June 2020 - 55
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - Spanish - May/June 2020 - 56
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - Spanish - May/June 2020 - 57
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - Spanish - May/June 2020 - 58
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - Spanish - May/June 2020 - 59
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - Spanish - May/June 2020 - 60
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - Spanish - May/June 2020 - 61
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - Spanish - May/June 2020 - 62
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - Spanish - May/June 2020 - 63
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - Spanish - May/June 2020 - 64
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - Spanish - May/June 2020 - 65
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - Spanish - May/June 2020 - 66
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - Spanish - May/June 2020 - 67
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - Spanish - May/June 2020 - 68
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - Spanish - May/June 2020 - 69
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - Spanish - May/June 2020 - 70
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - Spanish - May/June 2020 - 71
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - Spanish - May/June 2020 - 72
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - Spanish - May/June 2020 - 73
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - Spanish - May/June 2020 - 74
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - Spanish - May/June 2020 - 75
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - Spanish - May/June 2020 - 76
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - Spanish - May/June 2020 - 77
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - Spanish - May/June 2020 - 78
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - Spanish - May/June 2020 - 79
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - Spanish - May/June 2020 - 80
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - Spanish - May/June 2020 - 81
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - Spanish - May/June 2020 - 82
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - Spanish - May/June 2020 - 83
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - Spanish - May/June 2020 - 84
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - Spanish - May/June 2020 - 85
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - Spanish - May/June 2020 - 86
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - Spanish - May/June 2020 - 87
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - Spanish - May/June 2020 - 88
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - Spanish - May/June 2020 - 89
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - Spanish - May/June 2020 - 90
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - Spanish - May/June 2020 - 91
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - Spanish - May/June 2020 - 92
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - Spanish - May/June 2020 - 93
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - Spanish - May/June 2020 - 94
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - Spanish - May/June 2020 - 95
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - Spanish - May/June 2020 - 96
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - Spanish - May/June 2020 - 97
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - Spanish - May/June 2020 - 98
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - Spanish - May/June 2020 - 99
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - Spanish - May/June 2020 - Cover3
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - Spanish - May/June 2020 - Cover4
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pes/powerenergy_sp_050620
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pes/powerenergy_sp_030420
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pes/powerenergy_sp_010220
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pes/powerenergy_sp_1119
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pes/powerenergy_sp_091019
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pes/powerenergy_sp_070819
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pes/powerenergy_sp_050619
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pes/powerenergy_sp_030419
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pes/powerenergy_sp_010219
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pes/powerenergy_sp_111218
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pes/powerenergy_sp_091018
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pes/powerenergy_sp_070818
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pes/powerenergy_sp_050618
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pes/powerenergy_sp_030418
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pes/powerenergy_sp_010218
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pes/powerenergy_sp_0917
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pes/powerenergy_sp_0717
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pes/powerenergy_sp_0517
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pes/powerenergy_sp_0117
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pes/powerenergy_sp_0317
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pes/powerenergy_sp_1116
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pes/powerenergy_sp_0916
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pes/powerenergy_sp_111217
https://www.nxtbookmedia.com