IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - Spanish - September/October 2020 - 44

✔✔ software de modelo de gestión de activos (HydroVan-

tage, véase Bhan et al. y de Meel), que calcula los
costos de operación de las instalaciones existentes y
mejoradas (el software fue desarrollado y es propiedad de Hatch); y
✔✔ varias técnicas de estimación de costos, que calculan
el costo de desarrollar nuevos establecimientos para la
generación de energía en el río Acaray.
Cada modelo se estableció para considerar la incertidumbre futura, ya sea mediante el análisis de escenarios (p. ej.,

Cálculos
de ingreso
con Vista DSS
-Todas las
Opciones

la incertidumbre hidrológica y de carga) o mediante modelos probabilísticos de las variables de incertidumbre (p. ej.,
los riesgos de falla en los equipos existentes). El periodo de
estudio se extendió por los siguientes 50 años y comenzó en
2017. La relación de los diversos modelos en el desarrollo de
un análisis de costo-beneficio se ilustra en la figura 1.
Definición del escenario

Las opciones de desarrollo se obtuvieron mediante una
exhaustiva comunicación con la empresa de servicios públicos paraguaya ANDE. Se desarrollaron ocho escenarios en
total. Las opciones 0 y 1, que simplemente representan la
continuidad del funcionamiento de las centrales eléctricas
Acaray I y II existentes, se utilizaron como base de comparación para todos los escenarios futuros. Las opciones 2-4 se
ocuparon de varios escenarios de mejora para las centrales
eléctricas existentes. Las opciones 5-7 agregaron la construcción de nuevas instalaciones a las opciones de mejora.
Esto se describe con más detalle en la tabla 1.

Beneficios

Modelo de planificación de generación de potencia

Acaray III/Yguazú
Opciones Costos
de ingeniería
estimados

Costos de las
opciones de
rehabilitación
y mejora de
Hydrovantage

Informe de
costo-beneficio
de Vista

Costo-beneficio
Hydrovantage

Comparación costo-beneficio-Todas las opciones

figura 1. El proceso de evaluación de costo-beneficio.

El propósito del modelo era llevar a cabo simulaciones detalladas para cada opción de desarrollo, y calcular su respectiva generación, con una reducción de costos correspondiente
para satisfacer la carga del sistema. El modelo se ocupaba
de la representación hidráulica del sistema del río Acaray e
incluía los puntos de afluencia naturales, el almacenamiento
en la presa de Yguazú y las centrales eléctricas de Acaray,
las unidades generadoras, los efectos del agua de descarga
y el transporte entre los embalses. El sistema de transmisión
también se modeló, e incluyó la representación del mercado
energético de modo que la contribución tanto de las centrales
eléctricas de Acaray como de las transacciones energéticas
para satisfacer la carga se calcularon adecuadamente. En este
análisis, se consideraron los siguientes mercados (figura 2):
✔✔ contrato Itaipú, como un contrato de capacidad garantizada y un contrato por hora no garantizado,

tabla 1. Definición de escenarios.

44	

Opción de desarrollo

Descripción

Base de comparación

0

Operación histórica

Generación real a partir de registros
históricos

1

Operación optimizada de instalaciones existentes

Operación histórica (opción 0)

2A

Rehabilitación de Acaray I/generadores nuevos en Acaray II

Operación optimizada (opción 1)

2B

Reemplazo del rodete en Acaray I/generadores nuevos en
Acaray II

Operación optimizada (opción 1)

3

Mejora de Acaray I/generadores nuevos en Acaray II

Operación optimizada (opción 1)

4

Mejora de Acaray I y II

Operación optimizada (opción 1)

5

Nuevo desarrollo en Acaray III

Mejora de Acaray I y II (opción 4)

6

Nuevo desarrollo en Yguazú

Mejora de Acaray I y II (opción 4)

7

Nuevo desarrollo en Acaray III e Yguazú

Mejora de Acaray I y II (opción 4)

ieee power & energy magazine 	

septiembre/octubre 2020



IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - Spanish - September/October 2020

Table of Contents for the Digital Edition of IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - Spanish - September/October 2020

Contents
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - Spanish - September/October 2020 - Cover1
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