IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - Spanish - September/October 2020 - 45

✔✔ contrato de exceso de Itaipú, y
✔✔ contrato por hora de Yacyretá.

En general, la implementación del modelo requería los
siguientes pasos:
✔✔ la determinación de las entradas del modelo mediante
*	la recopilación de datos, incluida una revisión de los
registros históricos y una reunión con el personal de
la ANDE,
*	las pruebas de eficiencia in situ,
*	el análisis hidrológico,
*	el análisis del mercado y la carga, y
*	la revisión de los principales supuestos
✔✔ la calibración del modelo,
✔✔ la configuración del modelo y las simulaciones para
todos los escenarios definidos en la tabla 1, y
✔✔ el análisis de sensibilidad.
La eficiencia de la unidad en ambas centrales se determinó mediante la realización de pruebas de eficiencia
durante una de las visitas a las instalaciones. Debido a que
las unidades modernas proporcionarían mejoras significativas en la eficiencia, la evaluación de la eficiencia de las unidades actuales brinda información crucial para caracterizar
los beneficios económicos de toda mejora futura.
Los datos de entrada hidrológicos se deben evaluar
cuidadosamente. Se caracterizaron mediante el uso de los
datos de afluencia de cálculos regresivos derivados a partir de 12 años de registros históricos disponibles sobre la
generación, los flujos del derrame y los niveles del agua
en las centrales eléctricas de Acaray. Dada la naturaleza
a largo plazo del análisis, la consideración para el cambio
climático también se incluyó. Los cuarenta y tres años de
proyecciones naturales de afluencia en los varios afluentes
a partir del año actual del estudio (2017) y que se extiende
al año 2060 se utilizaron para complementar la representación hidrológica derivada de registros históricos. Las
proyecciones se calcularon en un intervalo temporal diario
según las entradas futuras de precipitación y de temperatura proporcionadas por los modelos climáticos en un estudio separado.
La proyección de la carga era otra entrada clave para el
análisis. Se espera que la demanda máxima crezca significativamente en los próximos años; se predice que la carga
actual se duplique antes de 2025. Para considerar la incertidumbre en los pronósticos a muy largo plazo, se realizó un
análisis exhaustivo de la sensibilidad para evaluar el impacto
de demandas más altas y más bajas. También se consideró la
variación estacional en los patrones de carga.
Modelo de gestión de activos

El propósito del modelo de gestión de activos (HydroVantage) era calcular los costos operativos de la instalación existente con opciones futuras de mejora o sin ellas. El modelo
se diseñó para combinar los costos con los ingresos de generación derivados del modelo de Planificación de Generación de Potencia para alcanzar una comparación de costos
septiembre/octubre 2020	

y beneficios mediante la evaluación del valor presente neto
(NPV, por sus siglas en inglés).
YGAQ
YGAW

Embalse
Yguazú
YGAT

YGARR

CONQ

CONRR

ACYQ
ACY1
ACY2
ACYT

ACYS

ACYRR
YGAZ
Leyenda
Arco de afluencia

Fuente/Sumidero

Arco de potencia

Embalse

Arco de aliviadero

Confluencia del río

Arco de alcance
del río

Elemento de la cuenca

(a)
Carga del sistema
Acaray
I
Contrato de
capacidad de Itaipú

Acaray
II

Exceso de Itaipú
Acaray
III

Yacyretá

Yguazú
(b)

figura 2. Una representación del sistema hidroeléctrico y de transmisión -el modelo de Planificación de
Generación de Potencia. YGAQ: Afluencia de Yguazú;
YGAW: Cuenca de Yguazú; YGARR: Yguazú a confluencia;
CONRR: Yguazú a Acaray; ACYS: Aliviadero de Acaray;
YGAT: Desembocadura de Yguazú; CONQ: afluencia de
confluencia; ACYQ: Afluencia de Acaray; ACY1: Central
de Acaray I; ACY2: Central Acaray II; ACYT: Desembocadura de Acaray; ACYRR: Salida de Acaray; YGAZ: fuente /
sumidero.
ieee power & energy magazine 	

45



IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - Spanish - September/October 2020

Table of Contents for the Digital Edition of IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - Spanish - September/October 2020

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IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - Spanish - September/October 2020 - Cover1
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